Message to Biden – West Asia has moved on

On July 13-16, US President Joe Biden made his first visit to the region since taking office, after declaring the United States’ disengagement from West Asia for more than 16 months. The visit includes Israel, a quick encounter with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, and then a stop in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia for bilateral engagements with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and a joint meeting with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) leaders. Included. countries and from Egypt, Jordan and Iraq.

Since the visit involved the high-profile relocation of the Saudi Crown Prince, which Mr Biden had previously condemned, in a recent OpEd, Mr Biden addressed his critics: He insisted that the visit to Saudi Arabia be His intention was to “redirect – but not break – ties with the country”. He referred to the role of the state in promoting GCC unity, peace in Yemen and stability in oil markets in this context. Mr Biden also spoke of the need for the US to “counter Russia’s aggression” and “get ahead of China” – and recognized Saudi Arabia’s central contribution to achieving these goals.

Not surprisingly, his critics were not pacified. A recent editorial in US media described the visit as a “low point” for the president and “he will not be alive anytime soon”. Shadi Hamid of Brookings called the visit a “big blow to American interests”.

Biden agenda

Mr. Biden’s immediate concern during the visit was to encourage Saudi Arabia and its GCC partners to significantly increase oil production and, in the process, break its affiliation with “OPEC+”, where they manage the group’s production. Russia was a partner.

The US view is that increased oil production will help lower oil prices – a much-needed respite for the US president when US-initiated sanctions on Russian energy supplies have left global oil markets in disarray and prices plummeted. increased. This means that the price of petrol at US petrol stations has crossed $5 per gallon. Thus a few months ahead of the November midterm elections, US consumers are troubled by inflation, where a Democratic defeat could turn Mr Biden into a lame duck president and open the door to a Republican victory in the next presidential election.

But, not wanting to be seen as a sacrifice of moral principle for the sake of energy gains, Mr Biden made clear that, in Jeddah, he would attend a large meeting of Arab leaders and “it has to do with national security for them.” His officials also indicated to media persons that the president would promote a normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. He also spoke of a possible regional security alignment, with Israel building a strong coalition against Iran. in the participation of neighboring Arab states.

Some commentators insisted that the visit would be to “revitalize American leadership in the Middle East” – the solid alliance the US had built in Europe against Russia would be repeated in West Asia against both Russia and China. Mr. Biden confirmed this view in his first remarks in Jeddah when he said the US “won’t move away” from the region and “will leave a void to be filled by China, Russia or Iran”; He promised, instead, “active, principled, American leadership”.

in west asia

Mr Biden’s entry into Israel was a ‘love celebration’. He signed the ‘Jerusalem Declaration’ which essentially reaffirms all prior US commitments to Israel’s security. This included a US pledge to “never allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon” and to “use all elements of its national power to ensure that outcome”. However, because of Israel’s concern, Mr Biden insisted he would pursue diplomacy to address the nuclear issue with Iran and declined to set a deadline for finalizing the nuclear deal.

The conversation with Mahmood Abbas was largely cosmetic. Biden has distanced himself from promoting dialogue on key issues, vaguely referring to the “two-state solution”, nor did he support former US President Donald Trump’s claim of Israel’s occupation of Jerusalem and the occupied West Bank. Tried to reverse the belief. He also failed to push Israel to investigate the murder of Palestinian journalist Shirin Abu Akleh, probably by an Israeli sniper.

The stay in Jeddah provided a reality check. In a remarkable show of unity, nine Arab leaders refused to support the US in its confrontation with Russia and impose sanctions. GCC oil producers made no promises to increase oil production, or attempt to break the “OPEC+” alliance. Above all, he rejected Mr Biden’s efforts to downplay Palestinian aspirations: according to Egyptian media, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi emphasized the central importance of addressing the issue to regional peace and security. Insisted.

Again, Saudi Arabia took no steps to normalize relations with Israel; It only agreed to fly more Israeli civilian aircraft over its airspace. The GCC states also rejected the condemnation of a regional security group that would bring Israel as its ally against Iran. A day after Mr Biden’s departure, Saudi Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Adel bin Ahmed Al-Jubair, said relations with Israel would return to normal only after a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine.

Approach

Mr Biden had inadvertently walked into an area that has changed drastically. As the US was losing its credibility as a regional security provider and Mr Biden reaffirmed his country’s disengagement from the Middle East, major regional states have been holding several diplomatic talks with their neighbors without any US involvement: Saudi Arabia I am already having five rounds of discussions with Iran in Baghdad and preparing for the next round; Iran is no longer seen as an outside nation that threatens the region: The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has announced sending its ambassador to Tehran, while Saudi Arabia calls for better relations with the Islamic republic. has accepted.

Again, Turkey has enthusiastically reached out to Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, while Iraq, Jordan and Egypt have announced a regional economic and political alignment. Arab states have recognized Israel as an integral part of the geopolitics of the Middle East, but further normalized relations conditioned on actual progress on matters related to Palestinian aspirations. And, finally, all regional states have built close and substantial political and economic ties with Russia and China.

Thus, West Asia reflects the same multipolarity that is emerging globally. Although the region still buys US weapons and hosts US military bases, it no longer sees the US as the center of the region’s security interests; Nor does he share his animosity with Russia and China.

Mr. Biden’s vision of America for the security of West Asia is obsolete. His visit may serve his domestic interests to some extent, but it has not affected the region. West Asia has moved on.

Talmiz Ahmed is a former Indian Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Oman and the United Arab Emirates