Mint Explainer: What does Erdogan’s victory mean for India and the world?

• Turkish President Erdogan, who has led the country since 2003, won a run-off election on Sunday against former civil servant Kilikdaroglu. According to the country’s Supreme Election Council, Erdogan won 52.1% of the vote while his opponent won 47.9%.
• Erdogan was forced into a runoff election earlier this month after he failed to win more than 50% of the vote in the first round of voting. In 2018, he won the election in the first round.
• This time, Erdogan defied election predictions to defeat his opponent with surprising ease. While he was forced to flee, he retained his support among conservative voters. Experts pointed out that Erdogan’s final vote tally of 52.1% was close to the share he achieved in 2018, pointing to the stability of his support.
• Leading up to the election, Erdogan’s administration made some very public mistakes. He had lost some support due to his mismanagement of the response to the earthquakes in February and the ongoing inflationary crisis. There have also been concerns about the rise of authoritarianism in the country.
• Turkey’s six opposition parties rallied behind Kilikdaroglu in the hope that he would be able to topple Erdogan. However, this proved to be a bridge too far. As news of the result broke, global leaders including US President Joe Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Erdogan.
• Erdogan said after his victory, “The most urgent issue of the coming days is to eliminate the problems arising from the rise in prices due to inflation and to compensate for the welfare losses.” His biggest challenge will be domestic – dealing with the economic crisis, consolidating a faltering currency, and rebuilding parts of the country hit by the earthquake.
• Erdogan is also likely to continue his country’s close ties with Russia, which makes him unique among NATO leaders. It has also clashed with Western powers over Sweden’s entry into NATO, which Turkey is currently blocking. Erdogan has demanded that Sweden extradite those whom Ankara considers terrorists.
• Meanwhile, Erdogan’s policy on Kashmir has raised tensions between India and Turkey. The Turkish President has repeatedly criticized India’s policy in Kashmir, especially after the removal of the state’s special status in 2019. However, the countries have recently moved towards a tentative rapprochement. Erdogan and Modi met on the sidelines of the SCO summit in 2022, in what some saw as a sign of an improvement in ties.
• As Turkey’s economic situation worsens, it may seek closer ties with India. However, its longstanding support for Pakistan’s position on Kashmir is unlikely to change significantly.

Updated: May 29, 2023, 01:08 PM IST