Russia has just intensified the war in Ukraine. Just a week after announcing a partial mobilization of its troops, Moscow announced it would annex four provinces in Ukraine. These moves indicate that the war in Ukraine is likely to drag on. Mint breaks this dramatic development into Moscow’s game plan for Ukraine.
What did Moscow do?
Russia has announced that it will annex four Ukrainian provinces: Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhya and Kherson. This happened after Moscow held a deeply controversial referendum in these areas. Reports indicate that Ukrainian citizens were forced to vote by Russian troops. Overall, Russia is claiming an estimated 109,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory which equates to 15%-20% of the country.
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However, the Russian army does not yet have full control over these provinces. It controls most of the Luhansk province and a large part of the Donetsk region. It holds about 70% of Zaporizhzhia and also the important city of Kherson. Fighting continues in the northeastern and southern regions of the country.
Why has Russia done this?
Analysts predict that Russia’s recent military setback may have pushed Putin into a corner. He can either accept the loss or increase the bet. By claiming the area as Russian land, he could justify escalating fighting as an attack on Russian soil. It could give a break to Ukraine and its Western supporters. Waging a war over what Moscow considers its territory could lead to a full-scale conflict that, according to some experts, could lead to limited use of nuclear weapons.
Statements from top Russian officials seem to confirm this view. Asked whether an attack on Ukraine-occupied territories would be an attack on Russia, a Kremlin spokesman commented that “it will be nothing more”.
How has the world reacted?
The condemnation has grown thick and sharp. G7 foreign ministers issued a stern statement saying that Putin’s actions “mark a new low point in Russia’s blatant violation of international law. It added that the countries “will never recognize, nor fake, these alleged annexations.” A “referendum” will be held. at gunpoint”. The European Union also condemned the merger, while the United Kingdom and the United States issued a new batch of sanctions on Russia.
President Biden also struck a strong note: “Make no mistake: These actions have no validity,” he said.
what does this mean?
Together with Putin’s decision to call for a partial mobilization of Russian reserve troops, it means the war is not over. Ukraine’s victories in recent weeks have raised hopes that Russia’s precarious military position could force the Kremlin to come to the negotiating table. If Putin moves through the takeover of Ukrainian territory, analysts fear there will be no way for Russia or Ukraine. Moscow will be forced to fight for what it claims as its territory while Ukraine will refuse to negotiate as long as Russia claims its land.
Uncertainty between global markets and energy suppliers is likely to continue. The prospect of a large-scale conflict involving major European powers and the US will likely add to that uncertainty.
What does this mean for India?
At the diplomatic level, this means that New Delhi has once again been put in a difficult position on the global stage. India refrained from voting for a draft resolution condemning Russia’s action in the UN Security Council. While India has consistently called for dialogue and respect for territorial integrity, Putin’s annexation of Ukrainian land is in direct contrast to Ukraine’s position.
Meanwhile, escalation of hostilities will undermine global growth prospects and further shake up already troubled energy markets. This will hurt India’s economic growth ambitions coming out of the pandemic.
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