Modi may benefit from Putin’s visit to Delhi. All he has to do is deepen the Russia-China gap.

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TeaThat Russia-India-China trilateral passed without setting the Ganges on fire last week, at the end of which the three countries issued a anodine joint release Who said predictable things about Afghanistan, the fight against the COVID pandemic and the reform of global multilateral systems such as the United Nations Security Council.

Of course, no permanent-five nation – the US, Russia, China, the UK and France – is going to reduce their veto powers by allowing other countries into the lucrative circle of the UN Security Council. But let’s save the discussion on the merits of the United Nations for another day.

Still, the Russia-India-China (RIC) meeting was fascinating – and not just because the screensaver behind the foreign minister S Jaishankar’s computer screen had a view of the Konark Sun Temple. The context in which the RIC meeting took place is equally interesting. Let’s start investigating it.

Russia is not a junior partner of China

First, RIC talks draw closer to the eve of the Russian presidential Vladimir Putin’s visit to India on 6 December; It is the first time the Russian leader is traveling in person to another country for a bilateral meeting since the pandemic began. (If some of you are wondering how Putin summit with US President Joe Biden The answer to what might be described as a summer in Geneva, is that it was a meeting in a third country, not a bilateral visit.)

It is highly likely that Putin will travel to Beijing for the Winter Olympics in February 2022 – while Official boycott of Biden considered That’s why his visit to Delhi is important as he decided to come home despite the rising cases of Kovid. In addition to unveiling the RIC curtain last week, India and Russia will attend the 2+2 Foreign and Defense Ministers’ meeting, a format that became popular between India and the US a few years back. Also, a joint commission meeting will consider raising the trade and economic part of the relationship.

It is interesting that Putin is choosing to visit Delhi as it signals Russia’s abiding interest in India’s ties – notwithstanding Plea between Jaishankar and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov On whether the body of water around India should be called “Indo-Pacific” (as Jaishankar and the US call it) or “Asia-Pacific” (as Lavrov and China call it).

For all those who say that Russia is becoming a junior partner of China, this is probably Putin’s way of saying that grays are far more interesting than either blacks or whites. That the relationship between Delhi and Moscow has escaped the Sino-Soviet divide as well as the current embrace between Moscow and Beijing and that Russia would like to continue to invest in a strong, powerful and independent India.

Read also: America should not be too tough on India regarding Modi-Putin summit. for your own good

OK meeting with China

Another reason for the importance of the RIC dialogue is that Jaishankar was meeting his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in a virtual setting a year later. their Moscow encounter When there was talk of some kind of agreement between the two leaders regarding Ladakh. Some observers say India agreed Buffer zone on India side inside LACBut no formal announcement has been made on this. Indeed, the report of a “Chinese Village” in Arunachal Pradesh Only added to the tension with China.

The interesting thing is that Jaishankar still kept pushing the RIC meeting. Some would point to the hypocrisy, which is that India is talking to a Chinese leader when Chinese soldiers are not allowing Indian troops to patrol parts of their territory; Others would say that India would have been persuaded to go ahead with hosting the talks so that all decks would be cleared when Putin arrived in the city.

The question is, who would have taken the decision? Was it Prime Minister Narendra Modi and National Security Adviser Ajit Doval who decided that India has no shame in bowing down to the Chinese to host the talks, shying away from false pride? Was India persuaded by the Russians to do so? Did India decide to go ahead because it wanted to see what the Russians and Chinese would say publicly?

Overall, it was the right thing to do, not least because it is a good idea that middle powers like India don’t show their hands too soon.

Read also: How to prevent accidental wars? Mighty Putin, Xi, Modi are risk takers, may be triggers

BALANCE ACT OF INDIA

Third, the soporific nature of the RIC meeting also gives India an opportunity to ask what kind of power it wants to be. This is a question that has haunted it since independence in 1947 (and perhaps even earlier) and there is no better time to ask it again.

In the good old days, “non-alignment” was the buzzword that helped New Delhi overcome the weaknesses of its domestic economic power, even as it learned to negotiate the tortuous and complicated paths between the two superpowers.

Today, in a post-Cold War world in which China is on the rise and the US is trying to balance ties between Beijing and Moscow – another virtual summit between Biden and Putin likely soon – India One must also learn to expand its influence. of directions. Also a sign of maturity is not learning to pick, but playing all sides skillfully.

for example, Delhi votes in UN against Ukraine-sponsored resolution On human rights violations in Crimea less than a fortnight ago. Some would say that India is defending its side in Kashmir, but in reality it is much more than that. Until 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea – much to the noise and fury in the Western world – India had reported that Crimea was part of Russia’s sphere of influence.

Today New Delhi’s growing closeness with the US is cause for celebration, but it can also be used as leverage with Moscow – and vice versa. The China factor is the key to that closeness, but what will be interesting is whether New Delhi is able and willing to play this game to deepen the rift between Moscow and Beijing.

Also, Russia is ready to deliver sophisticated S-400 Triumph missiles to India, a clear sign that it wants to deepen the tie. It is easy to return the affection of the Kremlin; Both Modi as well as the Russian-speaking Jaishankar (Russian was his language expertise as a young diplomat) can do so without the blink of an eye.

Indeed, the Russia-India-China triangle will have to be invested with enthusiasm in how India leverages its closeness with Russia to push the envelope with China as well as the US. The fact remains, whether it is “Indo-Pacific” or “Asia-Pacific”, that is the Indian Ocean. Let the whole world get along with it.

Jyoti Malhotra is the Senior Consulting Editor of ThePrint. She tweets @jomalhotra. Thoughts are personal.

(Edited by Neera Mazumdar)

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