TeaThe cold in Ladakh apparently froze the old friendship between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping as they ignored each other even as they stood next to each other and posed for a group photo during the Shanghai Cooperation Heads of States meeting. Organization in Samarkand. The mutual and deliberate display of ignoring each other on one platform to promote cooperative spirit in different regions is not naturally reflected in the Samarkand Declaration, which embodies the common beliefs of international affairs and aims to strengthen security and development. Identifies vast areas of cooperation for , By December, India will assume the presidency of the SCO and host the next Heads of State meeting in 2023. Xi has promised full support for the presidency of India.
The Samarkand Declaration points to the growing threats to the international situation and reaffirms its commitment to a more representative, democratic, equitable and multipolar world order with a central coordinating role for the United Nations. It rejects block, ideological and confrontational approaches to development and security challenges. However, many recent actions by China and Russia betray the gap between the spoken/written word and the work done.
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Sino-Russia tug of war in Central Asia
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as well as its efforts in factional politics and China’s attempts at conflicting approaches to dealing with the international order, show differences with those supported in the SCO. At the SCO Security Council Secretaries meeting held in Tashkent on 19 August 2022, Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Petrushev revealed the country’s aspiration to make the SCO a center of resistance from the US and its allies. This notion faced resistance from others, especially by Central Asian countries.
With the rise of China and the weakening of US influence, all Central Asian countries are experiencing pressure and pressure from China’s incursion into the region that is reshaping its political landscape. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was the main vehicle for achieving and then asserting its geopolitical influence. Russia thus finds its traditional hold on resource-rich Central Asia weakened and unable to match the economic good that China offers. But warnings of increasing dependence on China persist despite lurking in the background. The economic logic of BRI’s success would be affected by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This is due in part to the US and EU reactions to the invasion and the growing geopolitical friction with the Russia-China nexus, which has been seen as a friendship that has ‘no boundaries’.
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Opportunities for India
In Samarkand, Xi did not make public With reference to Moscow’s position on Ukraine. With Russia’s recent military debacle, China will be concerned about its repercussions on the larger US-China power play. However, China can be expected to continue its economic support to Russia without bypassing sanctions altogether, while avoiding the provision of military aid. For Russia, the prospects appear to be a growing reliance on China and lessening as a junior partner. The prospect of China’s increasing maneuvers may also be inevitable. One possibility that increases Russia’s need to keep India as close as possible and one that could open up some opportunities for India in the Eurasian territory.
Modi’s Comments For Putin during his bilateral talks in Samarkand, “these are not days of war,” has attracted global attention. Modi clarified that during the earlier talks between the two also one thing was mentioned. This sentiment echoed the Indian view that differences should be resolved through dialogue and discussion and violence should be avoided. It also highlights that India has retained its position of having the ability to mediate between the warring parties as it has so far refrained from taking sides.
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Importance of strengthening bilateral relations
Seen from a geopolitical point of view, India has managed to weave a complex web of relations that differ even in the context of continental and maritime locations in Asia. Continental alliances are mostly with countries that are uniting under China’s initiative. The US, on the other hand, is leading the maritime alliance. For India, such a priority of alignment serves its long-term interests of security, growth and development. It offers better prospects to strengthen India’s strategic autonomy. It also provides flexibility to deal with the world order which has been described as ‘between orders’.
Considering the cross-cutting web of India relations amid a growing trend of alliance building, it is perhaps a case to believe that India’s ties with the US, Russia, China and other powers will be strengthened through strengthening bilateral ties. should be done. Going forward, multilateral and multilateral fora are bound to weaken as issue-based convergence of interests pose challenges. Take the case of the SCO and its collective effort to counter terrorism, where India finds itself in the company of China and Pakistan. It would be unrealistic to expect a convergence of interests on countering terrorism. One thing that arose from the fact that at the United Nations, China continues to block action against terrorists like Sajid Mir involved in the 26/11 Mumbai attacks.
Similarly, Modi’s call for transit trade access to the SCO is unlikely to succeed, as can be judged by Pakistan’s response to it. Notably, even the last consignment of food to Afghanistan remains unnecessarily delayed due to the delay in the requisite permission by Pakistan.
Sino-India trade relations have weathered geopolitical storms so far. But it is also an Indian vulnerability that China can exploit as it carries out its military vulnerabilities on the northern border. Addressing economic vulnerability is where India must seek membership in multilateral economic groups such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). India’s economic strategy needs a rethink. It should try to take advantage of India’s geopolitical image which is not affiliated to any camp and hence does not hamper its trade relations. For India, the perennial emphasis should be that the logic of geoeconomics should continually seek to undermine the tyranny of geopolitics. At the same time, the opening of business relations should not fall prey to the quest for self-reliance.
The personal coolness between Modi and Xi displayed at the SCO is unlikely to melt away in the near future. This is likely because forces created by the friction of the global geopolitical landscape fill China-India relations with mistrust and a growing caution about hostile intentions.
India presides over the SCO at a time when relations between its members are likely to be strained. Therefore, it would be prudent to lower India’s expectations from the SCO. However, being on top of the table can bring opportunities that just aren’t visible. Hope has to endure.
Lt Gen (Dr) Prakash Menon (Retd) Director, Strategic Studies Programme, Taxila Institute; Former Military Adviser, National Security Council Secretariat. He tweeted @prakashmenon51. Thoughts are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)