Monsoon landed early in Kerala, three days before the normal date of June 1. Since then its western branch’s upward journey has been timely, but lacking in vigor. The latest IMD data shows that the monsoon is running short of 8%. Central India, which has the largest area of land dependent on rainfed agriculture, has received only 52% of the rainfall that is due; The southern peninsula has a deficit of 22%. Only the east and north-eastern parts of India are grappling with the opposite problem of too much rain, with floods in Assam and Meghalaya inundating entire villages. India’s northwest, where the monsoon is yet to arrive, and under a series of heat waves, is reeling under a rainfall deficit of 33%. Monsoon rains are crucial for kharif sowing and hence the weakening in June has raised concerns in several quarters. However, there is nothing to panic at this time. June rainfall, especially in the first fortnight, is historically low and contributes to less than 18% of the monsoon rainfall. Meteorologists say that the timing and arrival of monsoon rains has nothing to do with its final performance. Due to the large variation inherent in June’s rainfall, the IMD has historically opted not to issue forecasts for the month, unlike July and August. The latter two are considered to be the major monsoon months and are responsible for supplying about two-thirds of the monsoon rains. Episodes of drought in India and those associated with agricultural failures occur when the monsoon fails in these two months.
In fact, the real concern that remains on the horizon is the rains in July and August. On May 31, as part of its updated forecast, the IMD gave an optimistic picture. The June-September rainfall in the country was expected to be 103% of the long-period average, and central India was likely to receive “above normal” rainfall, like the southern peninsula. The Monsoon Core Zone, which includes most of the rainfed agricultural areas, is also expected to receive “above normal” rainfall. In previous years, there has been a pattern of ‘normal’ and ‘above normal’ rainfall, only for them to be predicted to dry for a large period in July and August, followed by a sudden increase in September. This pattern may help in giving numbers but is not always beneficial for Kharif sowing. Expectations of a good monsoon are based on the persistence of La Nia, the opposite of El Nio and characterized by cooling of central Pacific waters. However, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), another index of importance for monsoon, is expected to be negative. Whether La Nia can compensate for the soaking of the IOD remains to be seen.