Huge victory of Congress party In karnataka assembly elections has paid for the grumbling after its earlier resounding defeat in the three state assembly elections in the Northeast in Meghalaya, Tripura and Nagaland. Those shocks again got the candidates predicting the party’s extinction. It is clear not only that such tributes were premature, but also that there is no clear challenger to the Congress as the principal opposition party in the country, and a party with a national footprint to rival the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The only party.
campaigns, results
The Karnataka assembly election results were even better than most Congress supporters had expected – 135 seats and over 42% vote share, the party’s best win this century, in a state that has twice returned BJP governments Was in the last decade. The Congress’ strong campaign on the ground focused on local issues, governance, development and social justice, including the lower castes’ demand for a fair share of the pie. The “Five Guarantees” issued by the party were specific, targeted and practical and focused on real answers to the public’s dissatisfaction with unemployment, inflation and unemployment. It was easy to point out the difference between the BJP’s “40% commission government” versus the Congress’s “100% commitment”. The party also benefited from the popularity of its state leadership, especially (but not only) former (and now re-appointed) chief minister Siddaramaiah and his new deputy, state Congress chief DK Shivakumar. The party’s national leadership, particularly party president Mallikarjun Kharge and the Gandhi siblings, played a constructive and highly effective role, supporting state leaders rather than being dominant. Overall, most political observers agree that the Congress ticked all the right boxes.
Editorial | Ruling after winning: The way forward for the Congress government in Karnataka
The BJP, on the other hand, did not. The BJP’s tenure in power in Karnataka was slow and marked by both corruption and non-performance, fueling a growing desire for change among voters. The BJP government was criticized for its handling of several issues, including the economy, education and health care. It had no real answer to the widespread anti-incumbency sentiment across the state. Its now customary politics of centralization failed; The BJP’s Delhi-based top-down campaign, directed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, both of whom dominated the party’s outreach, was no answer to the strong local leadership of the Congress on the ground in Karnataka, which prevailed over outsiders. And on their “national” subjects. The BJP, as usual, touted the benefits of a “double-engine government” with a single party in power in Delhi and Bengaluru. The public preferred to rely on the Congress option given the failure of the two engines.
Obviously the politics of polarization was also a failure. The halal, hijab, “love jihad” and “land jihad” Hindutva messages, which sought to foster division between Hindus and Muslims in the state, led to promises of effective demonstrations and local protests directly affecting the interests of the common voter. Did not work against issues. , Desperate attempts to discredit Tipu Sultan, and to invent two Vokkaliga assassins who were believed to have killed him (without historical evidence to support such a ridiculous claim), a party Stuck in the past, when voters were concerned with the present.
Editorial | Lessons In Loss: On 2023 Karnataka Assembly Election Results
Worse, the BJP in North India has raised its voice against the injustice and dishonor of history, which shows little awareness of the very different history of the South. Aspirational voters need leaders who promise them a better future rather than an obsession with revenge for the past.
elections ahead
Much has been made by some commentators about the fact that the BJP’s vote share did not actually fall below the 36% claimed last time. The implication is that the Congress’ gains came largely at the expense of the Janata Dal (Secular), which with 19 seats has become irrelevant after enjoying the chief ministership twice because of its role as a “swing” party that It would be unwise for the BJP to take refuge in such calculations of national parties coming to power. Math cannot explain the overwhelming disapproval of the BJP government; Nor does it make up for the apparent lack of rapport between the anointed local leadership of the BJP and the voters.
This has serious implications for the BJP in the five state elections due this year, and even more so in the 2024 general election. The Indian voter is tired of rhetoric and media saturation of BJP’s messaging. She seeks tangible benefits in her daily life; No unaffordable cooking gas cylinders, unaffordable prices in the local market and unemployed sons hanging outside the house. It was no coincidence that women voters in Karnataka preferred the Congress over the BJP by a margin of 11%. After 10 years of Moditva, will he not yearn for change again in Delhi, as he did in Karnataka?
BJP’s election formula in Karnataka looked tired. The party’s tried-and-true appeals over the past decade have combined a Hindutva message, the language of communal polarisation, and cynical social engineering, with an emphasis on welfare schemes for which voters are supposed to be grateful. But Indian politics is like a bank which runs only current accounts; Earlier achievements disappear in fixed deposits that are taken for granted and no longer figure in the calculations of voters, who are primarily concerned about their present conditions and immediate prospects. In such a situation, there is a need to give something new to BJP. In 2019 it had Pulwama and Balakot. What’s in store for 2024?
The other paradox is the opposite of the cliché “nothing succeeds like success”. The BJP was too successful in 2019 for its own good. It had results in several states that it cannot possibly hope to repeat in 2024 – it won every seat in Gujarat, Haryana and Rajasthan; It won all but one seat in Bihar, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh; It recorded the best ever performance in Bengal and Maharashtra. The political landscape in each of these states suggests that the BJP will at best fall to between 220 and 250 seats in the Lok Sabha, unless it is able to make inroads in areas where it fared poorly in 2019 . In areas where it is already strong, there is a lot of potential for upward movement.
a word of advice
The Karnataka results force the BJP to ask itself a big question: what does it hope to deliver to India’s voters next time? Doubting Hindutva has limited rewards as it has probably hit the limit of votes it can win through polarisation. Modi’s best chance lies in a return to the 2014 formula for growth and economic development, bolstered by advances in the technological “India Stack” that is winning global acclaim. When a Pakistani video-blogger talks about Indian chaiwallahs with Paytm QR codes on their carts, or bankers rave about Unified Payments Interface (UPI) as a payment system better than the internationally dominant SWIFT , then the BJP can point to those achievements which have nothing to do with the communal poison it has injected into the veins of our society. It is a more credible message than history or hatred on which to seek re-election. But it may be too much to expect.
Shashi Tharoor is the third term MP (INC) for Thiruvananthapuram in the Lok Sabha, former Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations and former Minister of State. He is the award winning author of 24 books