Muted monsoon, predicts Skymet

Skymet on Monday said in its first forecast for monsoon 2023 that India’s monsoon rainfall will be 94% of the long period average (LPA) due to the impact of El Nino weather pattern associated with drought or poor rainfall. The forecast raises concerns over agricultural production in the country. This may prompt farmers to replant crops and increase the demand for irrigation in the agriculture sector.

“In an El Niño year, there is zero chance of excess rainfall, while the chances of below-normal rainfall and drought are 80% and 60%, respectively. “This season, it will depend on when the dry season picks up and how the dry season is being distributed within the monsoon,” said Jatin Singh, managing director of Skymet.

Farmers in India cultivate kharif or summer crops, which account for about 48–50% of India’s total agricultural basket during the June–October monsoon period. Major crops like paddy, cotton, maize, pigeon pea, soyabean and groundnut are sown during this period. India depends heavily on monsoon rains for agricultural production, which provides most of the employment to the people.

“If the El Nino matures in April-June, a delay of about 10-15 days is observed in the onset of the southwest monsoon, resulting in delayed sowing of kharif crops. Due to this the demand for irrigation will also increase, the pressure on the power departments will increase.

NITI Aayog member Ramesh Chand said he would wait for the official forecast from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) before commenting on the monsoon’s impact on agricultural production. However, he added that the country is now in a better position to deal with the weather shocks. “Due to the increase in irrigated areas and several other factors, our tolerance to weather shocks has improved compared to similar events in the past,” Chand said.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in his monetary policy statement last Thursday that rabi (winter) food grain production is estimated to grow by 6.2% in the fiscal year ended March, which brightened the prospects for the farm sector There is also rural demand. The central bank expects the economy to grow at 6.5% in fiscal 2024, following a 7% expansion in the recently concluded fiscal year.

Other experts said that even according to Skymet’s monsoon projection, the situation is not so bad.

“If the monsoon, which is projected at 94% of the long period average (plus or minus 5%), is spread in a manner close to normal in time and geography, it is unlikely to have a very significant impact on agricultural production. Our irrigation intensity has increased over a period of a decade or two. This reduces some of the vulnerability. Also, earlier kharif crops were the major component of agricultural production, but over the years, rabi crops have taken off,” India Ratings & Research (Fitch Group) Chief Economist Devendra Kumar Pant said.

As per the definition of IMD, the LPA of rainfall is the rainfall recorded in a particular region in a given interval (such as a month or season) over a longer period of 30 years or 50 years.

In terms of quantum, Skymet said rainfall in the June-September monsoon, which provides over 70% of the country’s annual rainfall, is expected to be 816.5 mm against the normal of 868.8 mm. The forecast has an error margin of +/- 5%.

“If the monsoon starts to fail in June, there will be panic among small farmers in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra in central India and the southern parts of the country, resulting in a situation similar to that in Maharashtra in 2015, when people Will start migrating to cities and states. Singh said. Parts of Madhya Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana are drought-prone and are usually affected in El Nino years.

On the El Nino climate pattern linked to the drought in India, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra recently told Mint that there are some spring disruptions around it across the globe. Therefore, it is too early to accurately predict its impact, as some El Niño seasons have seen good monsoons.

The IMD will issue its first forecast for the 2023 monsoon season on Tuesday.

Pant of India Ratings and Research also said that there were instances in the past where due to the favorable Indian Ocean Dipole (difference in temperature east and west of India), the El Nino effect was mitigated to some extent for India. Is.

“However, this is an evolving phenomenon and will be known later. Another factor that can mitigate some of the adverse impact on rainfall is information services that the government can provide to farmers to deal with changes in rainfall patterns. , such as switching to a different crop or shorter duration crop,” said Pant.