The BJP is trying hard to make inroads into Vokkaliga strongholds and retain its Lingayat support.
NDTV’s new opinion poll in partnership with Lokniti- Center for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) finds that Vokkaligas and Lingayats, Karnataka’s two dominant castes, are at opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to party preferences .
The survey of 2,143 randomly selected voters from 21 randomly selected assembly constituencies found that Vokkaligas appear to be mainly divided between the Congress and HD Kumaraswamy’s Janata Dal Secular or JD(S). 34 per cent of them said they supported the Congress and 36 per cent said in favor of the JD(S). A marginal section voted for the BJP, which won only 15 of the 58 seats where Vokkaligas influence the result.
Lingayats are still visible with the BJP, with 67 per cent willing to vote for it.
The majority of Muslim votes (59%) are likely to stay with the Congress.
The survey also found that half of the economically weaker sections prefer the Congress. Of the other half, only 23 per cent support the BJP.
The ruling party remains popular among the affluent classes. Only 31 per cent of them support the Congress.
The BJP is trying hard to make inroads into Vokkaliga strongholds and retain its Lingayat support. To this end, in March, the BJP government ended the four per cent OBC reservation for Muslims and split it between the two communities.
Lingayats got a larger share of reservation – 7 per cent, one per cent more than Vokkaligas.
The state’s largest community, comprising about 17 per cent of the population, and having given nine chief ministers to the state, Lingayats could determine the outcome of the election in the form of 90-100 of the 224 assembly seats.
The community, initially supportive of the Congress, switched loyalties in the 1980s following the sudden sacking of Lingayat Chief Minister Virendra Patil by former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi. This provided an opportunity for the BJP to make inroads in the southern state under the leadership of BS Yeddyurappa, one of the tallest leaders of the community.
Though marginally smaller than the Lingayats, the Vokkaligas – 15 per cent of the population – have also been politically important, giving Karnataka its four chief ministers and one prime minister. The community bastion – the Old Mysuru region – has 61 of the state’s 224 assembly seats, including four in Bengaluru Rural.
Over the past months, the BJP, which has 17 seats – far behind the JDS’s 26 and the Congress’ 18, has been wooing the community. Apart from giving him a part in its new policy, the BJP government has also erected a colossal 108-feet statue of Nada Prabhu Kempe Gowda, the founder of Bengaluru and the 16th-century head of the Vijayanagara dynasty, near the Bangalore airport.
The party has also supported the view that the two Vokkaliga leaders had assassinated Tipu Sultan, the 17th-century ruler of Mysore, triggering a fierce political controversy during the election.