New Delhi: There has been no increase in new Covid-19 cases in India in the last six weeks despite a rise in infections in China and other countries, National Technical Advisory Group on Vaccination (NTAGI) chief NK Arora said in an interview. He said that there have been hardly any hospitalizations or deaths in India despite all the spread in India. Edited excerpts:
There is a lot of talk of a possible fourth wave as China is seeing a sudden surge. What is the situation in India?
We have seen that during the last six weeks, the cases of COVID-19 have not increased. In fact, as a result of increased testing since mid-December, the number of tests is now between 200,000 and 250,000 per day. And yet, we are getting 150-200 new cases a day and hardly any hospitalizations and deaths. Genomic sequencing has been scaled up and is done exclusively from two samples – samples from incoming international travelers and sewage. The matter of relief is that we are not getting any new variant or any such variant which is causing problems outside, and is not present in India. So, overall the versions are circulating and covid is here. But because of very broad vaccination coverage and also because of natural immunity in our population, most of these subtypes have not been able to cause either an outbreak or an increase in cases or an increase in hospitalizations or deaths. However, the proportion of sub-variants circulating has changed from time to time, for example, in November, it was B2.75 and now XBB has become the dominant one with 2/3 of it. But from a public health perspective and from a clinical perspective, we see that no Omicron virus could cause an increase in serious illnesses or deaths during 2022.
The pictures coming from China are horrifying.
What’s happening in China, we’re not really sure. On one hand we hear that the number of cases has increased, but on the other hand they are reporting one or two deaths per day. This death toll is very less. So, what is really happening in China, no one is sure. And they’ve also opened up the economy, the airports, and allowed their population to go out wherever they want. It is important to note the Indian scenario. We find that we are well prepared for surveillance, diagnostic services, keeping a close eye on the international diff scenario and mobilizing the community here, and there is no reason to panic. Sometimes, some new variants come out and people think that there is going to be a problem.
When do you think the next Covid-19 wave will hit?
It is absolutely not possible to predict the behavior of the virus. During the last one year, this virus is changing its form very fast. But fortunately, none of the variants were of serious concern. So we will have to keep a close watch through genomic surveillance, epidemiology and hospital admissions for some more time
Should the government declare the end of the pandemic?
I think since covid is around we need to be careful. I would say it is practical and useful if we are careful.
What is the coverage of primary and booster dose respectively?
We have coped very well with the Omicron epidemic mainly because of the very high coverage of primary vaccination. So, in case some people have missed out, I strongly suggest that no one over the age of 12 gets vaccinated. So, the vaccination coverage in adults is around 97% and in children it is approx. 94%. Therefore, overall, there should be about 4-5% of the eligible population over 12 years of age who have not received the primary vaccination, while the coverage of the booster dose is about 27-28% of the eligible population.
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