opinion | What if India and Pakistan actually got together?

A complete reunion, of course, is difficult to imagine. But there are many possible alternatives that fall short of it: a looser confederation, a NAFTA-like trade structure, a military alliance, even a broader regional reorganization whereby each country loses some territory but the rest together. Let’s move on.

I have discussed these and related ideas with many knowledgeable Indians and Pakistanis, and the response has been very encouraging. They provide many more valid responses. He says that religious tension is increasing in India. Many Indians, most notably in South India, do not feel any special historical connection with Pakistan. Both the countries cannot even resolve the Jammu and Kashmir dispute. Pakistan is very close to China. India’s ruling party does very well under the status quo. Trade and travel between the two countries is becoming more restricted, not less. The border is one of the most militarized in the world.

Like I said, all valid points. What about arguments on the other hand? They are mostly of long duration.

First, it is worth noting that major changes in borders – whether through conquest, separation or integration – are historical norms. In this respect the post-colonial period is an anomaly. One view is that this era of relative stability will continue. Another is that it will prove to be temporary, and frequent border changes will become common once again – as the border between Russia and Ukraine is being fought again.

If this second approach is correct, India and Pakistan There are rarely such long, well-defined nations that they are natural candidates to remain as they are. Both their borders and their political systems can change quickly.

Second, overseas communities of both Indians and Pakistanis are growing, with significant presence in North America, Europe and the Gulf. These communities process India-Pakistan relations in their own way, and many of them come from backgrounds where Indians and Pakistanis are good friends and generally get on well. It is possible that these communities will become more influential in India and Pakistan, as will their tendency to promote greater harmony.

A third factor is the viability of the nation-state Pakistan. The country, founded in 1947, has recently applied for its 23rd (!) bailout from the International Monetary Fund, and is on the verge of another financial crisis. The current account deficit is skyrocketing and the currency is falling. At what point would it be fair to say that the current arrangements are not working? India’s per capita GDP is constantly moving away from Pakistan.

In any sensible world, India and Pakistan should be extremely close economic partners. Yet their current bilateral trade is only $514 million, and traveling between the two countries is not easy. It’s not crazy to think that something fundamental has to give, even if it’s decades away.

Finally, at least some parts of Pakistan are remarkably like parts of India, especially the state from which I write this: Punjab, which was divided by Partition and a version of which exists in every country. Both these Punjabs are similar because of religion, food, culture, history and for lack of a better word.

How many times in history have such similar places ended up together again? In the 1970s, Irish reunification seemed downright impossible. Yet today Sinn Féin has won a national election in Northern Ireland and reunification is actively debated – and may even be likely in the next few decades.

The geopolitics of South Asia are different, but there can still be close ties between India and Pakistan. China can threaten both the countries by taking them towards cooperative relations. Or both Pakistan and India can give a lot of autonomy to their constituent political units, and then those units can form new cooperative relations.

These scenarios do not seem entirely plausible. But it’s worth taking a few chances from time to time to dispel recency bias—the idea that things should be the way they are now. And once you realize that the future could be radically different from the present in many ways, the prospects for India-Pakistan relations begin to look very different.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Tyler Cowen is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is a professor of economics at George Mason University and writes for the blog Marginal Revolution. He is the co-author of “Talent: How to Identify Energizers, Creatives and Winners Around the World”.

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