New Delhi: The world’s population is expected to reach 8 billion people on Tuesday (November 15), according to United Nations estimates, which consider it a milestone in human development. The latest UN projections suggest that the global population could increase to around 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.4 billion in 2100. The annual World Population Prospects report, released on Monday on World Population Day, also noted that the global population is growing at its slowest rate since 1950, falling by less than one percent in 2020.
While it took 12 years for the global population to grow from 7 to 8 billion, it will take about 15 years to reach 9 billion – by 2037, a sign that the overall growth rate of the global population is slowing. In 2022, the two most populous regions were both in Asia: East and South-East Asia with 2.3 billion people and Central and Southern Asia with 2.1 billion people. China and India, with over 1.4 billion each, account for the majority of the population in these two regions. More than half of the projected increase in global population by 2050 will be concentrated in just eight countries: Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania. The unequal growth rates among the world’s largest countries will reorder their rankings based on size.
According to UN estimates, India is projected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country during 2023. Population growth is due to decreasing levels of death rates, as reflected in increased levels of life expectancy at birth. Globally, life expectancy reached 72.8 years in 2019, an increase of nearly 9 years since 1990. A further reduction in mortality is projected to result in an average longevity of approximately 77.2 years globally in 2050.
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The countries with the highest fertility levels are the countries with the lowest per capita income. So global population growth has over time been concentrated in the world’s poorest countries, most of which are in sub-Saharan Africa. In these countries, sustained rapid population growth could thwart the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the world’s best path towards a happier and healthier future. Even though population growth amplifies the environmental impact of economic growth, an increase in per capita income is the main driver of unstable patterns of production and consumption.
The countries with the highest per capita consumption of material resources and greenhouse gas emissions are those with high per capita income, not those with the fastest growing populations. Meeting the objectives of the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rise depends critically on preventing unsustainable patterns of production and consumption, according to the United Nations, while achieving the SDGs. Nevertheless, slow population growth over several decades may help reduce further accumulation of environmental damage in the second half of the current century.