Punjab is more than just another election

Has Punjab been reconstituted in the ensuing assembly election since 1966, which is the thirteenth, going to mark any significant deviation from the state’s long-standing electoral trends and issues? For any direct observer of Punjab politics, the trends have been: Presence of electoral constituencies, identity politics, competitive populism, rise of state-level party and leadership, close contest, electoral instability and pragmatic electoral coalition/coalition government. . Issues that have remained with the state for more than two decades include: ethnic peace, human security, endemic economic crisis in the post-Green Revolution phase, ecological crisis, institutional corruption and, more recently, youth migration, Drug menace, sacrilege, agricultural laws, among others.

on social claim

While the issues are state-specific as elsewhere, in terms of trends, cross-state comparisons reflect Punjab’s ‘extraordinaryism’ in the absence of incremental transfer of political power to socially marginalized communities through the electoral route. The claim from the bottom remains elusive, despite almost a third of the state’s population being from 39 scheduled castes (34 of the 117 reserved seats after the fourth delimitation exercise). And even when Dalits are comparatively economically well off.

And in terms of electoral participation, Punjab has consistently recorded higher numbers than the national average in recent elections. The overwhelming dominance of the zamindar and numerically strong Jat Sikh community in Punjab politics to compare it with the non-twice born land-owning dominant castes in other states (Reddy, Khammas, Lingayats, Nairs, Vokkaligas, Kapus) is unique. Some). Except Zail Singh, all the chief ministers and leaders of most of the parties are learning Jat. Punjabi Suba, A testament to the asymmetric power structure that defines state politics. Even the upper caste Hindus and Khatri Sikhs have played a second role in the politics of the state.

not much political traction

Punjab exhibits another ‘extraordinary’ trend – the inability of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to make electoral gains despite entering into a long-term alliance with the Akali Dal, a state party. One can mention the fruitful alliances made by the BJP in various states in the past, namely Biju Janata Dal, Trinamool Congress, two Janata Dal (Secular and United), Telugu Desam Party, Shiv Sena and Asom Gana Parishad. Instead of reaping the benefits, the BJP has seen its social circle of urban business/professional caste-Hindus shrink. Limited to 23 constituencies, the party has gradually handed over a portion of its urban upper caste base to the Congress, receiving less than 9% of the vote in the last five assembly elections.

The current elections show great continuity in terms of both the trends and issues described above: New practical alliances are now in place: BJP-Punjab Lok Congress-Shiromani Akali Dal (United); Shiromani Akali Dal (Badal)-Bahujan Samaj Party; The parties are echoing about making tall, unrealistic promises and not seeking votes on their past performances in the government (for example, ₹1,000 a month for every woman in the state who ‘promises’ the Aam Aadmi Party, or AAP. .’). Identity politics on caste and communal lines is going on (AAP leader and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal has announced that a Sikh will be AAP’s chief ministerial face; Congress’ Sunil Jakhar may be denied the chief minister’s post for being a Hindu. and the Akali Dal promised a Dalit Deputy Chief Minister if it came to power).

in Congress

Factionalism is rampant in the Congress, with Punjab Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi and Punjab Congress chief Navjot Singh Sidhu fighting it for the Congress chief minister’s post. Sukhdev Singh Dhindsa is also leading the Akali faction, Shiromani Akali Dal (United) against the official Akali Dal. The BJP has been raising the issue of national security, territorial integrity, Pakistan sponsored terrorism, which has now been taken up by the Punjab Lok Congress led by Captain Amarinder Singh. Governance issues, drug menace, corruption, unemployment and mafia raj have now become the main election issues. So in this election both SAD and Congress are accusing each other of not doing enough work while in power.

Interestingly, the present Congress government led by Mr Channi is very keen to blame the government led by Captain Amarinder as if it were an opposition government! The most vocal on these issues has been the AAP – apparently it has never been in power in the state and was the first out of the block to raise the drug issue back in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

impact of agricultural laws

However, two recent developments have been observed for the current election that mark divergence in terms of trends and issues, making it an unusual one. The year-long farmers’ agitation against the three controversial agricultural laws has cast its shadow on the politics of the state. Under the threat of Jat Sikh landed farmers losing their core social sector, the Akali Dal broke ties with the BJP (a strong alliance since the 1990s). The breakup is likely to result in loss of votes for both the parties. While the BJP may lose the Akali rural Sikh vote, the Akali Dal may lose the much-needed Hindu vote that has allowed it to take on the Congress, which has always enjoyed good support among Sikhs. The Akali Dal has suffered a loss of its image (which can be called long-term) as a farmer’s party because of its initial support for agricultural laws. As far as the Congress is concerned, it has tactfully kept away from the wrath of the farmers while supporting the issue without directly getting involved.

The movement has led to the formation of the Samyukta Samaj Morcha (SSM) by 22 farmers’ unions – the first such political initiative by Zamindar Jat Sikh farmers in the state. The development has the potential to harm the AAP which is hoping to regale former Akali voters (such as in the 2017 election, especially in the Malwa region) after incidents of sacrilege involving Sikh sacred texts and subsequent Dissatisfied with the firing on the protesters. 2015 when Akali Dal was in power. SSM’s performance may have electoral implications in a multi-cornered contest as there were 16 constituencies in the last assembly election where the margin of victory was less than 2%.

Dalit vote

In the long run, the movement has re-focused on farmers’ issues and farmers are seen as a separate voting community. The elevation and establishment of Mr. Channi as the first Dalit Chief Minister will also have far-reaching consequences. Even though he is a ‘casual’ chief minister – as the Congress high command had chosen him only after powerful Jat Sikh leaders Navjot Singh Sidhu and Deputy Chief Minister Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa quashed each other – the Congress is now on him to strengthen the Dalits. Betting. Vote, thus ensuring the victory of the party. There are 54 constituencies where Dalits constitute more than 30% of the voters listed, which is an important factor in this multi-cornered contest. The Dalit vote has so far been fragmented mainly on religious lines, going to the Congress and the Akali Dal, while the other contender, the BSP, is in a state of terminal decline with less than 5% of the vote and no seats. in the last three and four assembly elections respectively.

Mr Channi has so far been wise enough not to challenge the existing social power structure, thus avoiding a possible counter-mobilization of Jat Sikhs. Arguably, in the event of a Congress victory, it would be difficult to displace him – a fact that explains Mr Sidhu’s restlessness. Mr Channi is projecting himself as the original ‘aam aadmi’ who has risen above the ranks to counter a resurgent AAP. Despite the consequences, given the state’s history of uncertain and narrow margin of victory due to so many parties in contention, Mr. Channi’s appointment has opened up a political space already dominated by Jat Sikhs.

Ashutosh Kumar is Professor in the Department of Political Science, Panjab University, Chandigarh. Views expressed are personal