Supporters of Pakistan’s ruling coalition gather outside the Supreme Court in Islamabad to protest against the judiciary’s alleged facilitation of former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan. photo credit: AFP
Following the violent May 9 incidents in Pakistan following the arrest of former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan in an alleged corruption case, the country’s powerful military establishment decided to disband Mr Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Is. The talks have now stalled as the army leadership has swiftly scrapped the ‘Imran Khan project’ which it launched with much fanfare a few years ago. After his irresponsible sacking last year, Mr Khan and his PTI have targeted the army in an unprecedented manner. Mr Khan’s arrest on 9 May was apparently linked to publicly accusing and naming a serving Inter-Services Intelligence officer, Major General Faisal Naseer, of alleged attempts to assassinate Mr Khan.
Never before in Pakistan’s 75-year history has a civilian leader, especially the leader of the opposition, challenged the military in the way Mr. Khan did. The Pakistani army and its intelligence agencies are now taking revenge for a year of public humiliation by Mr Khan and his party leaders.
The episode provided an opportunity for the military establishment to tighten its grip on democratic institutions in Pakistan, win back the public’s trust – rather by force – and create a new political system or “hybrid” regime. More importantly, the Chief of Army Staff (COAS), General Syed Asim Munir sees this as an opportunity to step away from the shadow of his predecessor (General Qamar Javed Bajwa) and shape his own legacy. Before his retirement, General Bajwa had claimed in a speech last November that the army’s role in politics was “unconstitutional” and had decided to remain “apolitical”. General Munir has also made similar claims, but the ruthless crackdown on PTI is quashing those claims.
During the May 9 protests, Mr Khan’s supporters ransacked the army’s general headquarters in Rawalpindi, Pakistan’s power centre. For the first time in Pakistan’s existence, civilians staged a “symbolic coup” against the powerful military establishment, in a way asking them to stay in their barracks.
Predictably, this muscle-flexibility has backfired. PTI workers allegedly involved in the May 9 violence will be tried in military courts under the Army Act and the Official Secrets Act. Significantly, this action of the army has got the support of the present Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) government. The army is also running a well-crafted propaganda to portray itself as a “victim” of PTI-led “terrorism”.
The army has not stopped. Almost the entire senior leadership of PTI has “officially” left the party to avoid imprisonment and pressure from the military establishment. The PTI is now struggling to survive, and Mr. Khan is rapidly losing ground and motivation to continue his fight for “haqiqi azadi”, or ‘true freedom’.
political mobility
However, Mr Khan’s political crisis goes beyond this. Provincial elections in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have been postponed indefinitely as a result of the 9 May violence. Mr. Khan and the PTI have been demanding elections in these provinces for a long time. Additionally, the PDM government’s chances of holding a nationwide general election later this year have also shrunk considerably. These dynamics will further increase political instability and increase the role of the military in politics.
Under these circumstances, the military establishment may no longer need a coup to establish control in the country. Traditionally, weak coalition governments and “mixed” political arrangements like Mr. Khan’s PTI government have given the military more room to assert its control. In fact, many analysts have labeled the current political system in Pakistan a “quasi-military dictatorship”.
The army is using Mr Khan and the PTI as an example to warn other political parties against crossing the red line. Furthermore, it is believed that the ‘Imran Khan project’ poses significant threats to unity within the military, as there have been reports of internal divisions within the military over the issue.
As a result, a crackdown on PTI supporters and the proposed use of military courts to target perceived dissidents within the security establishment are also being carried out. Reportedly, the Pakistan Army is ready to take severe action against its own officers who did not put up the expected resistance against the pro-Khan protesters. For example, former Lahore corps commander Lt. Gen. Salman Fayaz Ghani is under investigation for allegedly allowing PTI supporters to enter his house and vandalize it on 9 May. Media reports claim that Lt. Gen. Ghani’s wife has a close relationship with Chief Justice of Pakistan Umar Ata Bandial. The PDM government has hit out at Justice Bandial for allegedly favoring Mr. Khan, demanding his resignation for creating “anarchy” and “distress”. It is worth noting that Mr Khan’s support within the country’s judiciary has created tension between the judiciary and the military establishment.
This escalating civil unrest will add to the woes faced by Pakistan, which is already grappling with a severe economic crisis and multiple security challenges. The May 9 protests have given the army enough justification to end Mr Khan’s political career and fragment the PTI. With the military establishment strengthened and civilian institutions weakened, the people of Pakistan will bear the brunt of skyrocketing inflation as well as food shortages, power outages and limited fuel supplies. The prospect of political and economic stability in Pakistan is a distant dream.
Sameer Patil is a Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation. Saral Sharma is a PhD Scholar at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. Both authors have previously worked in the National Security Council Secretariat. Views expressed are personal