Various shades of religious polarization were reflected in the post-CSDS-Lokniti survey in Uttar Pradesh.
A lively debate broke out over the ’80:20 factor’ during the campaign for the state assembly elections. Did this election see any major religious polarization in the state? An early caveat that needs to be added to this discussion is the apparent bipolar competition that the state observed.
Never before have two major players been involved in an election result, sharing more than 95% of seats. This factor should be in the context in which the survey data on the nature and intensity of religious polarization is to be assessed.
If the vote share of the 80% Hindu community voters is taken into account, the BJP got over half the Hindu vote (54%) and the Samajwadi Party (SP) one-fourth (26%) of the Hindu vote. Table 1).
This time, in light of the bipolar contest, both the parties garnered seven percentage points more votes among Hindus than in the 2017 elections. Among the 20% Muslim vote, the SP got eight votes out of every 10 votes (79%), which was more than half the votes in 2017. The BJP got a little less than one (8%) of every 10 Muslim votes. , a slight increase compared to 2017. Thus while the BJP secured half the Hindu votes, the Samajwadi Party secured more than three-fourths of the Muslim votes.
How did the Hindu and Muslim vote trend in constituencies where Muslims had a significant presence? In constituencies where the Muslim population is between 20–39%, the BJP secured close to six out of every 10 (59%) Hindu votes (Table 2).
The consolidation of Hindu votes was very strong for the BJP in constituencies with more than 40% Muslim population.
Here the BJP got almost seven votes out of every 10 Hindu votes (69%). Thus, the higher the Muslim presence, the greater will be the consolidation of the majority in favor of the BJP.
When it came to voting patterns among Muslim voters in the same constituencies, a parallel trend of consolidation of minorities was observed. In constituencies with 20-39% Muslim population, eight out of every 10 (80%) Muslim votes went to the SP.
In constituencies with more than 40% Muslim population, the SP got more than nine out of every ten (94%) Muslim votes. Thus more rapid minority consolidation was observed in seats with a higher Muslim population. Greater Muslim consolidation in Muslim-majority areas is neutralized by Hindu integration in the same areas, leading to electoral results favoring the BJP.
How important was the issue of Ram Mandir while deciding the voting? Nearly half of the Hindu respondents, who felt it was an important issue, voted for the BJP. While deciding the vote, two-thirds of the people who said it was a very important or very important issue, supported the BJP.
Sandeep Shastri is the Vice Chancellor of Jagran Lakecity University, Bhopal and National Coordinator of Lokniti Network and Sanjay Kumar is the Co-Director of Lokniti Program at CSDS.