Remarks by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei LavrovAfter receiving a written response from Washington to Moscow’s security demands, that ‘Russia does not want war’ Ukraine raises hopes for a diplomatic solution to the crisis. Last week there was a flurry of diplomatic activities aimed at worsening the situation. In addition to the US’ written response to Russia, which could set the stage for further diplomatic talks in the coming weeks, French President Emmanuel Macron has held talks with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. Mr Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz are also reportedly trying to revive the stalled Minsk process, which seeks to find a peaceful solution to Ukraine’s internal conflict between Kiev and Russia-backed separatists in the eastern Donbass region. Mr Putin has said the US response does not address Russia’s main security concerns. The threat of a military conflict still remains. Russia, which has mobilized thousands of troops on its border with Ukraine, in Belarus in Ukraine’s north and Transnistria in the southwest (a separate region from Moldova), has a clear military advantage. But the West’s willingness to move forward with diplomatic options and Russia’s reciprocity show that neither side is in a hurry for an armed conflict.
There is a strong case for de-escalation. Mr. Putin has already achieved a lot, without firing a single shot. He has the Western leadership to speak to him on the contentious issue of NATO expansion, which Russia has long complained about. By holding a gun to Ukraine’s head, it has effectively drawn a red line in Russia’s relations with the West. Furthermore, as the US and its allies are scrambling for economic measures to punish Russia “if it invades Ukraine”, the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea and Moscow’s continued calling for separatists inside Ukraine Supports have practically become a non-issue. No one is threatening to punish Russia for not returning Crimea to Ukraine. The status quo has been redrawn. In addition, the US has said it is ready to discuss some of Russia’s security concerns, including missile deployments in Eastern Europe and military exercises in sensitive areas. Russia should accept US offers, ease the crisis surrounding Ukraine and opt for more dialogue on important issues, including NATO’s eastward expansion. If it still goes ahead with an attack that US President Joe Biden said might happen, it could be a mistake. Russia may be in a position to overtake Ukraine militarily, but what comes next in Europe’s largest country is as unpredictable as it can get. If there is any lesson to be learned from America’s post-9/11 military exploits, it is that great powers can achieve swift victories against weaker countries, but fail miserably to maintain those victories. Mr. Putin must not make the same mistake and thus push Europe back into the dark days of the Cold War.
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