New Delhi: Russia on Wednesday accused Ukraine of a failed attempt to “assassin” President Vladimir Putin in a drone strike on the Kremlin citadel in Moscow and threatened retaliation. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Kiev had nothing to do with the overnight incident.
Here’s a look at what we know about the alleged overnight drone strike on the Kremlin and the questions it raised.
What happened?
Several videos published on Russian social media channels showed the two objects flying on the same trajectory towards the dome of the Senate, one of the highest points in the Kremlin complex, with clocks on the nearby Spassky Tower showing 2:27 and 2. Is. :43 early Wednesday. The first appeared to be destroyed by little more than a puff of smoke, the second appeared to leave flaming debris on the dome. Reuters checks on the time and location indicate the videos may be authentic.
What is Russia saying?
Russia called the incident a terrorist attack and an attempt to assassinate President Vladimir Putin, for which it reserved the right to retaliate.
Western security analysts rejected the idea that the attack was intended to kill Putin, noting that the drones were aimed at a highly visible point of the vast, walled Kremlin citadel rather than at any residential quarters, and that Putin is often elsewhere. work from. His office said he was not there at the time.
What does Ukraine say?
Ukraine denied responsibility. “We don’t attack Putin or Moscow, we fight on our territory,” President Volodymyr Zelensky told a news conference in Helsinki.
Will Ukraine be able to withstand such a strike?
Perhaps. Ukraine appears to have carried out drone attacks deep inside Russia and Russian-annexed Crimea on several previous occasions, including twice last December on an air base for Russian strategic bombers. It has generally not claimed responsibility for such actions, although Ukrainian authorities have often celebrated them.
If it was Ukraine, what would it mean?
Ukraine has repeatedly surprised Moscow with its military might, launching attacks far beyond the frontier, but an attack on the symbolic center of Russian power would be its most audacious to date.
“If we believe this was a Ukrainian attack, consider it a demonstrative strike, a demonstration of capability and a declaration of intent: ‘Don’t think Moscow is safe’,” Russia expert and security analyst Mark Galeotti wrote on Twitter.
Some commentators described it as an affront to Russia, comparing it with a 1987 incident when a young West German pilot, Mathias Rust, evaded Soviet air defenses and landed a small plane on Red Square.
Could this be a Russian ‘false flag’ operation?
Some Western analysts said it was possible that Russia itself staged the incident in order to pin the blame on Kiev and justify some kind of crushing response. Phillips O’Brien of the University of St Andrews said the aim could be “to make Ukraine appear careless, either to undermine Western support or to try to bolster Russian domestic support”.
James Nixey of London’s Chatham House think tank said that, if this was a “false flag” operation, “it smells of desperation … and it is a high-risk strategy that is likely to be exposed”.
What will America do with it?
The Biden administration has poured cash and weapons into Ukraine to help defend against a Russian invasion, but Ukraine is likely to be wary of the unforeseen consequences of any attack on the Russian capital. The White House said it was not able to verify the Russian claim of the Ukrainian attack, and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the Russian claims should be taken with a “very large shaker of salt”.
What is the importance of time?
The incident comes at a moment of high tension and a potential turning point in the war, as Ukraine prepares to mount a long-awaited counter-offensive.
Perhaps more immediately, it coincides with preparations for Russia’s Victory Day holiday on 9 May, which is marked with a military parade on Red Square under the Kremlin walls.
Some videos of the event showed standing spectators that had already been placed above the wall of the Senate for the parade. Security had already been tightened for the parade.
what happens next?
The statement from Putin’s office prompted a significant backlash. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said it was time to “physically eliminate Zelensky and his clique”, and parliament speaker Vyacheslav Volodin called for the use of “weapons capable of stopping and destroying the Kiev terrorist regime”.
Western analysts questioned how far ahead it was possible for Russia to proceed, given the death and destruction it has already inflicted on Ukraine with massive missile attacks.
Matthew Ford, associate professor at the Swedish Defense University, said further attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure would be less effective now that spring has arrived, and disruption of grain supplies would hurt Russia’s own allies. He also questioned whether Russia was capable of ousting Zelensky. He said in a telephone interview, “The closest they got was last spring. How can they pull it off now – it seems so implausible.”