Shadow War between Israel and Iran

In July 1977, Iran’s Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi sent Lieutenant General Hassan Taufanian, his deputy minister of war and armaments, to Israel to hold secret talks with Menachem Begin’s newly formed Likud government. In April of that year, Shah signed six ‘oil for arms’ contracts with Shimon Peres, the defense minister in the previous Labor government. One of the contracts, codenamed ‘Flower’, sought Israel to modify its advanced surface-to-surface missiles and sell them to Iran. General Taufanian’s mission was to ensure that a change of government in Israel would not affect the deal. He met with Major General Ezer Weisman, the Minister of Defense in the Begin government, and they both agreed to build a military co-production line – to provide technical know-how to Israel and finance and test sites to Iran. As part of this, Israel promised to supply Iran with surface-to-surface missiles that could carry nuclear warheads up to 700 kilometers away, wrote journalist Ronen Bergman in his book, secret war with Iran,

change in west asia

Speaking conversely, had the Islamic Revolution not occurred, Iran would have had nuclear missiles supplied by Israel in the 1980s that could strike deep inside Sunni states in the Persian Gulf. But the 1979 revolution that toppled the Shah’s monarchy and turned the country into a democratic republic changed not only Iran but the entire region as well. West Asia will never be the same again. The revolution moved Iran, one of the region’s natural forces in terms of resources, geography and population, from an American ally to its top enemy. For the Sunni Gulf monarchies, a Shia democratic republic in the waters of the Gulf posed not only geopolitical challenges but also existential and ideological threats. For Israel, the region’s only nuclear power, its foremost rival was just born. But despite their shared concerns, these three pillars could not come together immediately because of the pre-existing contradictions between Israel and the Arab world. Four decades later, as Iran’s regional profile continues to rise despite US sanctions, Israel and the Arab world, under the auspices of the United States, are coming together to counter their common enemy. If Israel was prepared to supply nuclear missiles to Tehran in the 1970s, today its primary foreign policy objective is to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear capability.

octopus theory

There is already a shadow war going on between Israel and Iran. Israel has carried out covert operations inside Iran targeting its nuclear and missile programs, which former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett has dubbed the “octopus theory” – hitting the octopus on its head, not just its net. Iran has responded with drone strikes, targeting a compound it claims to be used by Israeli operatives in northern Iraq. Israel has conducted hundreds of airstrikes inside Syria in recent years, targeting Iranian supplies and proxies, while a naval conflict between the countries, where ships linked to them have been attacked in the Gulf, Arabian and Mediterranean Seas, is escalating. Is.

There is a consensus among the anti-Iranian axis of West Asia (USA, Israel and the Gulf countries) that Iran’s nuclear program should be foiled. If Iran acquires a nuclear capability (even if it does not make a bomb), it could shift the regional balance of power, which now favors Israel. But there is no consensus on how to tackle this challenge. The Obama administration signed a 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, which practically cut its path toward nuclear capability. But Israel and the Gulf states were not happy with the JCPOA (or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, as the deal is known) because in exchange for limiting Iran’s nuclear program, the agreement promised economic rewards to the Islamic Republic, which Iran could change. In a non-nuclear traditional, mainstream power in West Asia. Israel wants not only to fail Iran’s nuclear program but also to stop its rise. Israel voiced its concerns in Washington when the Trump administration decided to unilaterally pull the US out of the nuclear deal and impose sanctions on Iran in 2018.

pressure and resistance

US President Donald Trump thought the administration’s ‘maximum pressure’ approach would force Iran to go back and return to the table to renegotiate the deal. Mr Trump wanted concessions from Iran on its weapons programs and regional activism (support for non-state actors). But Iran pursued a policy of ‘maximum deterrence’ to the maximum pressure from Mr Trump – it launched attacks in Saudi Arabia and Gulf waters, extended support for its proxies, particularly the Houthis in Yemen, now under Saudi Arabia. present a direct security challenge. Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and began to enrich uranium in large quantities to high purity and develop advanced centrifuges. The situation is more complicated now than in 2015. Iran is facing domestic pressure over its economic woes, but the regime, all branches of which are now controlled by hardliners, is highly unlikely to compromise its weapons program or regional policy. The US wants to address the nuclear program but it wants to do so through dialogue because it doesn’t want to get embroiled in another conflict in West Asia – certainly not now when its priorities are in Europe and the Indo-Pacific.

In late February, days after Russia began its invasion of Ukraine, a senior Iranian official told this writer at the foreign ministry in Tehran’s national park that “we are very close” to agreeing to revive the deal. (“The US is returning” agreement, which is, legally, still alive, but is actually on life support”, according to him) “while at the same time far away”. It is as close as Iran and world powers have. Bringing the deal back to life was widely agreed upon. But it was far from over because Iran wanted an “objective guarantee” from the US that it would once again not back down from its promises. He said the scope of the Iran nuclear deal was Will continue to oppose any US effort to address non-nuclear program-related issues (read weapons program) in the U.S. Four months later, a deal is still elusive.

multi-directional strategy

Different stakeholders in this geopolitical vortex have different views on how it should be resolved. Iran wants sanctions lifted in exchange for going back on its 2015 commitments. But it also wants to emerge from the crisis financially sound. US wants to foil Iran’s nuclear program through conversationBut he wants a “strong and long” agreement that would address not only Iran’s nuclear program but also its “destabilizing” activities in the region. One of the reasons for the collapse of the Vienna talks was the Biden administration’s refusal to undo Trump’s decision to designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist group. Israel’s goals (and those of its Gulf partners) are far more ambitious; He wants to thwart Iran’s nuclear program, undermine its military program, build strong region-wide defenses against its proxies, and halt its rise. And it does not necessarily believe that Iran should be stopped through talks. Israel has come up with a multi-directional approach driven by a common goal – escalating the shadow war with Iran and building a stronger security partnership with the Gulf states that can prepare them both for any future full-scale war , while the U.S. And Europe continues to negotiate with Iran. This strategy enhances Israel’s role as a new security provider in the Gulf at a time when the US is preoccupied with its priorities elsewhere.

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But Israel’s strategy is fraught with risks. It is true that the rise of a more cohesive anti-Iranian axis poses a significant challenge to the Islamic Republic. Iran is clearly under pressure following Israeli attacks, which recently fired the powerful IRGC spy chief. Iran’s covert operation abroad appears to have been blunted by the US killing of elite Quds Force chief Qasem Soleimani in January 2020. Still, Israel’s repeated sabotage attempts haven’t stopped Iran from enriching uranium, which is now a step away from building weapons grade levels or advanced centrifuges. Aside from the occasional setback, the attacks have not derailed Iran’s ballistic missiles or armed drone program either. So if the nuclear talks fail, Israel may not have much choice. It has to advance its shadow war to achieve its goals. This is a very dangerous slope.

stanly.johny@thehindu.co.in