Ace investor Shankar Sharma has forecasted that if the incumbent government (BJP) comes back to power for a third term in the ongoing General elections 2024, there will no be major market movement.
In a post on X, Sharma wrote, “My satta prediction:
A. If BJP/NDA comes with expected numbers, no major market move/ slightly down
B. If INDIA comes, huge fall, then mind-boggling rally, because first thing, they will cut LTCG to zero, as they did in earlier reign.”
Sharma’s post comes as Prime Minister Narendra Modi is vying for a consecutive third term.
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections in India began on April 19 and will take place over a 44-day period, concluding on June 1. This major political event occurs every five years and is crucial for most Indians due to its potential impact on various aspects of their lives, including their savings and investments. The outcome of the election can influence economic policies and market sentiments, which are pivotal for the country’s future direction. Given the wide-ranging influence of the elections, many people closely follow the process and anticipate the results.
In general election years, financial markets often experience positive trends, as historically, they have provided good returns during these periods. The past four general elections, in particular, have seen markets deliver double-digit returns. However, a potential downside is that these gains may already be priced in ahead of the current election cycle. This means that as the election approaches, the scope for further market gains could be limited, as much of the anticipated positive impact might already be factored into current market prices. Investors should be mindful of these dynamics when making investment decisions during an election year.
Indian Markets have been on a positive trend this year so far, with the benchmark Nifty extending gains for the third straight month in April. In 2024 YTD, the index has risen around 3 percent. Going ahead, most experts see a strong long-term outlook for Indian equity markets but see some corrections in the near term.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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Published: 02 May 2024, 09:06 AM IST