Mumbai: ,the one who wins from defeat is called juggler (The one who wins even after losing is called elusive.) This line is from the 1993 Shahrukh Khan film juggler comes to mind after Thursday’s order of the Supreme Court On disqualification petitions against 16 MLAs of the Eknath Shinde-led Maharashtra government, including the Chief Minister himself.
What’s more, the line can be applied to both sides involved in the fight—the Shinde-led Shiv Sena and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in one camp, and the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), which includes the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray), Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), and Congress, in another.
The outcome of this situation largely depends on which side is able to craft a compelling political narrative around their respective victories and defeats arising out of the Supreme Court order.
In June 2022, Eknath Shinde led a rebellion by a group of MLAs from the undivided Shiv Sena, which was then led by Uddhav Thackeray. As a result, the then Governor of Maharashtra Bhagat Singh Koshyari demanded a floor test for the Thackeray-led MVA government. However, before facing the floor test, Thackeray resigned as CM, leading to the fall of the MVA government.
Subsequently, the breakaway faction of the Shiv Sena joined the BJP and Shinde became the chief minister. The Thackeray faction filed a disqualification petition in the Supreme Court against 16 MLAs of the Shinde camp, which was rejected by the Election Commission. Recognized as ‘Shiv Sena’ with the bow and arrow symbol in February 2023.
Thursday’s verdict, however, was a mixed bag, with not only good news for the Shinde camp, but also some victories – even if of the moral kind – for the MVA.
On the plus side for the Shinde camp, the Supreme Court said it could not restore the MVA government as Thackeray resigned without facing a floor test. The court also clarified that the decision on the disqualification petitions now rests with Speaker Rahul Narvekar, who is a BJP leader – meaning the Shinde government is stable.
Political analysts ThePrint spoke to said that even if Narvekar’s decision is challenged in court, the matter may take a few months from now to reach a conclusion.
However, some observations of the Supreme Court have also promoted MVA, at least to some extent.
In its decision, the court raised many questions regarding the formation of the Shinde government. It said Koshyari, the then Governor, was “not appropriate” to ask the MVA government to face a floor test and that there was not enough evidence to conclude that Uddhav Thackeray had lost the confidence of the House.
It also criticized Speaker Rahul Narvekar’s decision to recognize Bharat Gogavale from the Shinde camp as chief whip of the Shiv Sena, saying it was “illegal” and done without proper investigation as to which faction of the party was the legitimate one. Was.
All this prompts former Uddhav Thackeray to call for the resignation of CM Shinde and Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis on “moral grounds”.
Speaking to ThePrint, political commentator Prakash Bal said the verdict could be summed up in one line: “The surgery is successful, but the patient is dead”, an allusion to the verdict saving the government, but its actors. not that easy .
Bal, however, said that the Supreme Court’s strong observations about the role of the governor and speaker in the events leading up to the formation of the Shinde-led government may not be significant as there is no election around the corner and no sympathy wave for Uddhav. may end. before this.
Lok Sabha elections are scheduled for April-May 2024, followed by state assembly elections in October next year. While many bodies in Maharashtra are awaiting elections, the force said the state government may be in no hurry to get them done soon.
Here’s a look at some of the possible consequences of Shinde and Thackeray’s decision.
Shinde’s position strengthened by the decision
Within two hours of the Supreme Court’s decision, Shinde and Fadnavis addressed a joint press conference, feigning jubilation. While the journalists were sitting, Fadnavis said, “Government settle Jhala (The government has decided).”
“I welcome all of you to the government’s press conference, which has been declared completely constitutional by the SC,” Fadnavis said. Why does the order enhance the constitutional validity of this government. Meanwhile, CM Shinde described the order as a “victory for truth”.
Political observers say what the order does is secure Shinde’s position as CM and as the leader of his Shiv Sena faction, which in turn boosts his bargaining power with the BJP.
An adverse order would not only weaken Shinde’s position in the government, but could also prompt his Shiv Sena MLAs and other leaders to look for better prospects.
“This is definitely a boost for the Shinde-Fadnavis government, after the talks that have been going on for the past few weeks,” political analyst Hemant Desai told ThePrint.
“Leaders of the Uddhav Thackeray camp will now think whether they will be able to put up a fight. Some may leave to join the Shinde camp or the BJP,” he said.
Uddhav’s bargaining power may take a blow
Dr. Sanjay Patil, a researcher at Mumbai University, said that the Supreme Court’s decision will increase the challenges before Uddhav Thackeray.
“Uddhav Thackeray has to work on rebuilding an entire party which may see some more defections. The legal battle is over, but when election preparations begin, it will be an uphill battle to find 40 new MLA candidates and 13 new MP candidates to replace those who quit with Shinde.
Ultimately, he said, these issues could affect Thackeray’s position and bargaining power not only within the MVA, but across Maharashtra politics.
“Uddhav Thackeray cannot retain the position of the undisputed leader of the MVA,” he said.
The Supreme Court verdict has further lent credence to the theory that the MVA government fell solely because Uddhav Thackeray chose to resign rather than face the governor-ordered floor test.
Notably, NCP president Sharad Pawar noted that Thackeray had “resigned without a fight” in an updated version of his autobiography. folk maze associationReleased last week.
The SC, in its order, had said: “Status quo cannot be restored as Mr Thackeray did not face the floor test and tendered his resignation. And so, the Governor invited Mr. Shinde to form the government at the behest of the BJP, which was the largest political party in the House.
sympathy wave?
Speaking to reporters on Thursday, Uddhav Thackeray said that his decision to resign was not legally correct, but important from a moral point of view.
Mumbai University’s Dr. Patil said Thackeray’s resignation was an important one as he heads a party run on sentiments and emotions.
“Had Thackeray not resigned from the post of Chief Minister, he would not have got the sympathy that he has got in the last one year,” he said.
However, both Patil and Desai agree that only sympathy can take the party so far.
“The sympathy that Uddhav Thackeray and other MVA parties will get from the court’s comments about the Shinde government coming to power will be short-lived,” Desai said.
Patil also questioned how much the MVA could practically capitalize on the court’s criticism of Governor Koshyari and Speaker Narvekar and garner public sympathy.
“The BJP-Shiv Sena government will now be more aggressive to strengthen its grip on the state,” Desai said.
Read also: Sharad Pawar’s resignation drama casts shadow of Bal Thackeray of 90s