invasion of ukraine a graphic illustration of the nature of how Warning never changes. It is an aspect of the human condition that is as irrational, cruel, wild, limitless, and hopeless today as it has been since man first raised the baton against his fellow man. When people fight knowing that their personal survival and that of their families, communities and countries is at stake, there are no unbreakable laws or boundaries that limit what can be done to survive and win.
It is equally true that although the nature of war does not change, its characteristics – how it is actually fought – are constantly changing according to circumstances, technology and thinking. Today the thinking is mostly about applying digital technologies created in the civilian sector to create new ways of operating and organizing in conflicts. Some aspects of the war in Ukraine feel familiar; Others are changing at the pace of innovation under existential pressure.
One constant is that major wars, where the very existence of a country and its way of life are at stake, are won by mobilizing civil society. The regular armed forces would be in the front line and provide the backbone of leadership and organisation. But the numbers needed to fight on fronts of hundreds of kilometers for many years only come from keeping a significant proportion of the civilian population in uniform. This effort was matched by the mobilization of industry and the wider economy to support the war. Consider that Vladimir Putin has set aside 30% of Russia’s budget this year to pay for defense, security and law enforcement. This 9trn ruble ($143bn) is a huge increase compared to previous years.
Another constant is that the battle for territory is still dominated by artillery which brings death and destruction within a range of about 30 km (19 mi). artillery is an essential partner tanks and infantry when they open fire and move in to seize and hold the ground. This is just as true in Ukraine now, albeit with better equipment, as it was on D-Day in 1944. Success also depended on how air power (bombs and rockets by jets and helicopters) could bring about sudden and decisive results on the ground, and how air defenses could prevent this from happening. This is not something that cyber or precision missiles can do. The idea that cyber jets would make tanks and guns obsolete was always a fantasy. Countries like Britain that cut spending on conventional armed forces to pay for cyber programs now see a need for both together.
However, modern technology has led to massive changes in the characteristics of warfare in Ukraine. Using the Satellite The specter of seeing and locating enemy positions from space has made the war in Ukraine transparent in essence. This is thanks to data provided by both expensive, capable geostationary military satellites and cheap, commercial low-Earth-orbit satellites and drones. The combination of space-based capability and extensive open-source data means that many members of the Army, Navy or Air Force are no longer traceable. The Russian invasion was monitored in meticulous detail for a few months prior to its launch and has continued ever since.
Meanwhile access to the internet (as provided by Elon Musk’s Starlink in Ukraine) across multiplatform devices as well as the volume and speed of data enabled by artificial intelligence and cloud computing are all contributing to the battle and determining Helping who gets an edge. Starlink allows each Ukrainian soldier to have access to a common picture of the situation on the ground, centrally managed with ground terminals. Most units have at least one terminal. It links all available methods of identifying and locating a target—from special forces to drones to mobile-phone photos—to data in the cloud through rapidly evolving AI apps that screen and prioritize them . These apps then send the target to the most appropriate weapon system. The whole mechanism means that targets can be processed up to ten times faster than before. It is also capable of identifying and locating targets that are deep in Russian-held territory.
Another new feature of this war, for all its enduring need for artillery, is the predominance of precision weapons on the major military platforms that had dominated the battlefield for over 100 years. Ships, tanks, aircraft, large logistics bases, civil infrastructure and headquarters are more vulnerable than ever. Radar and precision missiles mean that even the fastest jet or cruise missile can be shot down from several hundred kilometers away. It is possible to hit a given window, not just a given building. It can be used to minimize the damage caused to civilians. But there is no doubt that Russia deliberately uses the accuracy of precision missiles to target hospitals and other civilian buildings.
The precision technology also means that hitherto dominant equipment such as tanks and artillery units are far more vulnerable and therefore less effective by comparison. For example, the HIMARS high-precision rockets provided by the US reduce Russia’s ability to bring forward artillery and ammunition. Of course tanks can still win close-quarters battles. But precision technology provides the ability to destroy the enemy’s major weapons systems, logistics and stores close to a quarter of the time before the battle begins.
The primacy of precision is such an important new feature of the war that it could determine the outcome in Ukraine. The winner could be whoever wins the race for cheap, accurate techniques. Neither Russia nor Ukraine started with the stockpiles of missiles needed to sustain their initial rate of use for more than a few months. Neither side has the industrial capacity to rapidly scale up missile production to meet demand. That’s why precision drones are being launched instead. The Iranian Shaheed-136, delivered to Russia at a price of $20,000 per shot, is far cheaper than the $1 million it could pay for a cruise missile (though Russia is also trying to buy the missile). Such drones can also be made rapidly in large quantities. Either side can increase its supply of expensive missiles, while the massive use of cheap drones will gain an edge. And the armed forces of the world will be watching to see what turns out to be a winning combination.
The war in Ukraine is a demonstration of how the nature of conflict is changing in the 21st century. True, it is not the US and China fighting with their superpower strength and technology. Yet in the context of the high stakes and pace of competitive innovation, it is still breathtaking. And these innovations are part of an evolving wartime orchestra that includes players and conductors who are learning as they go. What happens in Ukraine will be the benchmark for how countries prepare for and fight the next major conflict.
General Sir Richard Barons is a British Army officer. He is the co-chairman of Universal Defense & Security Solutions, a global defense consultant.
© 2023, The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved. From The Economist, published under license. Original content can be found at www.economist.com
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