TeaThe return to power of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is an opportunity for Brazil to right the wrongs of Jair Bolsonaro over the past four years and put the country back on the path of equity-oriented growth. Lula, best known as the leader of the left-wing Workers’ Party, comes with a record of high performance and high popularity. His last two administrations, from 2003 to 2011, followed a mixed economic approach – market-friendly policies with high social spending – that helped lift some 25 million Brazilians out of poverty as well as ensure high economic growth. But years of trouble followed. His chosen successor, former revolutionary Dilma Rousseff, was impeached by a hostile Congress. Under Mr. Bolsonaro, the far-right, ultra-nationalist president who is a proponent of Brazil’s brutal military dictatorship, Brazil’s economic growth story has disappeared, hunger soared and its health system collapsed. At least 700,000 people have died due to COVID-19 as the president underestimated the threat of the pandemic and his administration botched the response to the crisis. Mr. Bolsonaro’s policies have led to rapid deforestation of the Amazon rainforest.
During the Bolsonaro years, Brazil’s liberal, working class and progressive classes supported Lula, who was convicted on corruption charges before being acquitted by the Supreme Court. Lula, who left office in 2011 with an 83% approval rating, rallied the opposition, giving him a narrow but convincing victory in the presidential run-off. After the inauguration on Sunday, Lula said his focus would be on unity and reconstruction. To his advantage, a new pink tide is coming in South America. He would find support for his agenda from leftist leaders in countries such as Venezuela and Chile. Lula has already pushed through a constitutional amendment to cap Brazil’s spending as he plans to spend an additional $28 billion this year. Still the road will not be built. Mr Bolsonaro refused to officially acknowledge and left Brazil ahead of Lula’s inauguration, while his supporters staged violent protests, calling on the military to “shut down the government”. If social tensions remain high, the economic challenges will be greater. The commodity boom that helped fund Lula’s social welfare spending in the early 2000s is non-existent today. He has to restore public confidence in government, rebuild the economy and healthcare sector, and unite a polarized country. Lula must proceed cautiously, negotiating with the various blocs of Brazil’s elite-dominated politics and aiming to make gradual substantial changes to their wealth structures.
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