The newly unveiled commitments at COP26 must be tested as they came amid very conflicting official signals
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s surprise announcement on November 2, 2021 COP26 Climate Summit in GlasgowThe government did not receive the expected review, for a number of reasons, due to a significant increase in India’s emissions reduction targets. Barring a few experts, international commentators expressed dismay that India was promising net zero emissions only by 2070 instead of 2050. In India, many analysts praised the new targets, indicating a new climate-oriented development policy.
frequent trend
The government’s raised ambition represents a welcome continuation of the cross-partisan consensus prevailing since the 2015 Paris Agreement. The new policy paradigm, introduced at the Copenhagen summit in 2009, departed from the earlier long-standing stance that India, as a developing country, was not obliged to cut emissions, and insisted That although India was not part of the problem, it was now ready and able to contribute to global emissions reduction efforts. India’s pledge in Glasgow, which is yet to be formally presented as an updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), calls for Paris to step up emissions cuts to tackle the rapidly growing climate crisis. Adheres to the decision of the agreement.
India’s newly unveiled commitments should be closely scrutinized, as they came amid sharply conflicting signals from the government over several months. There were several talks at the G20 meeting ahead of COP26 with high-ranking envoys visiting India, with India giving no indication of revising its current NDC. By the time the Prime Minister’s speech, senior Indian officials were loudly announcing the unacceptability of net-zero and the possibility of higher targets by India. People in India are familiar with the interest in dramatic announcements by this government, but the value of such secrecy in climate negotiations is questionable. India insufficiently communicated the importance of its increased commitments, especially in contrast to weak pledges from developed countries, and made little effort to take advantage of India’s updated pledge to drive deeper emissions cuts from them.
At the time of writing, India has further muddied the waters and has taken some of the shine from its Glasgow Declaration, with senior officials saying the new pledges depend on substantial financial support from developed countries, figures like $1 trillion in press interviews. has been mentioned. , The effects of such post-facto conditions will gradually emerge, and further speculation here is futile.
Substance
India’s new targets, details that may differ from those in an updated NDC, include five elements: reducing emissions intensity (EI), or emissions per unit of GDP, by 45% in 2030 relative to 2005 levels; Complete emissions reductions potentially of up to one billion tonnes from projected business-as-usual (BAU) 2030 levels; 500 GW (1 GW = 1,000 MW) of non-fossil fuel installed electricity generation capacity by 2030; 50% of electricity generation from renewable sources by 2030; and net-zero emissions by 2070.
India’s current NDCs and subsequent submissions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) confirm a steady decline in EI of over 2% per year since 2005. The 33%-35% decline promised in Paris and the updated reduction of 45% by 2030 are both quite achievable and equal for an emerging economy.
A billion-tonne reduction in emissions by 2030, the first time India has put it in an absolute number, can be read in different ways. India’s current annual emissions are around 2.8 billion tonnes and are projected to reach around 4.5 billion tonnes in 2030 based on BAU, so the pledged reduction would be a substantial 20%, comparing favorably with the targets of many developed countries . However, the prime minister’s speech in Glasgow referred to the railways’ net-zero 2030 target of cutting 60 million tonnes a year, and LED bulbs cutting 40 million tonnes a year, with only these two measures taking 10 years. promised to produce one billion tonnes. Shortcoming seems easy, which probably isn’t.
On installed power generation capacity, India’s existing NDCs included the government’s stated target of 175 GW from renewable energy (RE) sources by 2022, even though the NDCs extend to 2030, adding to an anomaly. Yet, India has been able to access only 101 GW of solar and wind power due to several constraints. If one adds large hydro and nuclear, both now considered renewable, the current RE installed capacity is around 150 GW or less than 40% of the total, showing under-projection almost achieving the NDC target for 2030. Used to be. The Central Electricity Authority (CEA) in its 2020 report on Energy Mix for 2029-30 has projected around 525 GW or 64.3% of non-fossil fuel installed capacity which includes 280 GW of solar and 140 GW of wind. As against 203 GW in 2019, only 267 GW is projected to come from coal and lignite, so almost all of India’s future capacity development is to come from RE. Without really saying that, it looks like India has promised virtually no additional coal-fired power in Glasgow! Even for some confusion about whether PM means installed capacity or power generation, India’s Glasgow pledge of 50% of electricity from RE by 2030 is slightly higher than CEA’s estimate of 44.7% . These commitments, combined with the need for storage and grid stability, could prove difficult as is currently seen.
remove deep inequalities
Glasgow pledges come from a few sectors mostly related to electricity generation. However, a truly transformative low-carbon future must include many more aspects, as actually emphasized by the Prime Minister in Glasgow as “lifestyle for the environment”. The time has come that India, which had hitherto been vocal for equality among nations, now takes seriously the deep disparity in access to energy and other essentials within India. Climate change is multifaceted, not limited to mitigation and, as all studies tell us, must be tackled in a variety of sectors.
The accelerated deployment of electric or fuel-cell vehicles should be accompanied by a rapid reduction in personal vehicle use and a major push for mass transportation. There is a need to reduce carbon lock-in and energy use through mandatory “green” building codes to build spacious housing and other building stocks, highways and infrastructure. A leap in employment-intensive recycling of waste goods and materials, including solid and liquid waste management associated with methane recovery, would provide substantial co-benefits across all sectors.
Where New Delhi slipped
Two major disappointments are worth noting from India’s stand in Glasgow. First, India refused to join more than 110 countries in announcing an end to deforestation by 2030. India’s pledges don’t even mention the NDC target for forests and tree cover, which India has been known to slip into with harmful impacts on both the environment and the environment. livelihood of tribals and other forest dwellers. Read together, these may confirm many of the worst fears about attempts to dilute environmental regulations in favor of corporate interests. Second, India also did not join a global methane pledge by more than 100 countries to reduce emissions of the short-lived but potent greenhouse gas by 30% from 2020 levels by 2030, when methane is one of the fastest-growing emissions in India. Is.
Glasgow, on the other hand, launched another international climate initiative called Infrastructure for Resilient Island States (IRIS) with the aim of providing India with technical, knowledge and financial support to small island nations with the help of developed countries. I wish such initiatives were taken in India too, where urban flooding is gaining alarming dimensions due to excessive rainfall due to coastal erosion, sea level rise, and haphazard urbanization.
It would also be ideal if the continuous updating of the NDC was done through a cross-partisan multi-stakeholder consultation process that would make it truly “nationally determined” and implemented.
D. Raghunandan is with Delhi Science Forum, a constituent of All India People’s Science Network
Slowdown on India’s Glasgow Declaration
The newly unveiled commitments at COP26 must be tested as they came amid very conflicting official signals
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s surprise announcement on November 2, 2021 COP26 Climate Summit in GlasgowThe government did not receive the expected review, for a number of reasons, due to a significant increase in India’s emissions reduction targets. Barring a few experts, international commentators expressed dismay that India was promising net zero emissions only by 2070 instead of 2050. In India, many analysts praised the new targets, indicating a new climate-oriented development policy.
frequent trend
The government’s raised ambition represents a welcome continuation of the cross-partisan consensus prevailing since the 2015 Paris Agreement. The new policy paradigm, introduced at the Copenhagen summit in 2009, departed from the earlier long-standing stance that India, as a developing country, was not obliged to cut emissions, and insisted That although India was not part of the problem, it was now ready and able to contribute to global emissions reduction efforts. India’s pledge in Glasgow, which is yet to be formally presented as an updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), calls for Paris to step up emissions cuts to tackle the rapidly growing climate crisis. Adheres to the decision of the agreement.
India’s newly unveiled commitments should be closely scrutinized, as they came amid sharply conflicting signals from the government over several months. There were several talks at the G20 meeting ahead of COP26 with high-ranking envoys visiting India, with India giving no indication of revising its current NDC. By the time the Prime Minister’s speech, senior Indian officials were loudly announcing the unacceptability of net-zero and the possibility of higher targets by India. People in India are familiar with the interest in dramatic announcements by this government, but the value of such secrecy in climate negotiations is questionable. India insufficiently communicated the importance of its increased commitments, especially in contrast to weak pledges from developed countries, and made little effort to take advantage of India’s updated pledge to drive deeper emissions cuts from them.
At the time of writing, India has further muddied the waters and has taken some of the shine from its Glasgow Declaration, with senior officials saying the new pledges depend on substantial financial support from developed countries, figures like $1 trillion in press interviews. has been mentioned. , The effects of such post-facto conditions will gradually emerge, and further speculation here is futile.
Substance
India’s new targets, details that may differ from those in an updated NDC, include five elements: reducing emissions intensity (EI), or emissions per unit of GDP, by 45% in 2030 relative to 2005 levels; Complete emissions reductions potentially of up to one billion tonnes from projected business-as-usual (BAU) 2030 levels; 500 GW (1 GW = 1,000 MW) of non-fossil fuel installed electricity generation capacity by 2030; 50% of electricity generation from renewable sources by 2030; and net-zero emissions by 2070.
India’s current NDCs and subsequent submissions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) confirm a steady decline in EI of over 2% per year since 2005. The 33%-35% decline promised in Paris and the updated reduction of 45% by 2030 are both quite achievable and equal for an emerging economy.
A billion-tonne reduction in emissions by 2030, the first time India has put it in an absolute number, can be read in different ways. India’s current annual emissions are around 2.8 billion tonnes and are projected to reach around 4.5 billion tonnes in 2030 based on BAU, so the pledged reduction would be a substantial 20%, comparing favorably with the targets of many developed countries . However, the prime minister’s speech in Glasgow referred to the railways’ net-zero 2030 target of cutting 60 million tonnes a year, and LED bulbs cutting 40 million tonnes a year, with only these two measures taking 10 years. promised to produce one billion tonnes. Shortcoming seems easy, which probably isn’t.
On installed power generation capacity, India’s existing NDCs included the government’s stated target of 175 GW from renewable energy (RE) sources by 2022, even though the NDCs extend to 2030, adding to an anomaly. Yet, India has been able to access only 101 GW of solar and wind power due to several constraints. If one adds large hydro and nuclear, both now considered renewable, the current RE installed capacity is around 150 GW or less than 40% of the total, showing under-projection almost achieving the NDC target for 2030. Used to be. The Central Electricity Authority (CEA) in its 2020 report on Energy Mix for 2029-30 has projected around 525 GW or 64.3% of non-fossil fuel installed capacity which includes 280 GW of solar and 140 GW of wind. As against 203 GW in 2019, only 267 GW is projected to come from coal and lignite, so almost all of India’s future capacity development is to come from RE. Without really saying that, it looks like India has promised virtually no additional coal-fired power in Glasgow! Even for some confusion about whether PM means installed capacity or power generation, India’s Glasgow pledge of 50% of electricity from RE by 2030 is slightly higher than CEA’s estimate of 44.7% . These commitments, combined with the need for storage and grid stability, could prove difficult as is currently seen.
remove deep inequalities
Glasgow pledges come from a few sectors mostly related to electricity generation. However, a truly transformative low-carbon future must include many more aspects, as actually emphasized by the Prime Minister in Glasgow as “lifestyle for the environment”. The time has come that India, which had hitherto been vocal for equality among nations, now takes seriously the deep disparity in access to energy and other essentials within India. Climate change is multifaceted, not limited to mitigation and, as all studies tell us, must be tackled in a variety of sectors.
The accelerated deployment of electric or fuel-cell vehicles should be accompanied by a rapid reduction in personal vehicle use and a major push for mass transportation. There is a need to reduce carbon lock-in and energy use through mandatory “green” building codes to build spacious housing and other building stocks, highways and infrastructure. A leap in employment-intensive recycling of waste goods and materials, including solid and liquid waste management associated with methane recovery, would provide substantial co-benefits across all sectors.
Where New Delhi slipped
Two major disappointments are worth noting from India’s stand in Glasgow. First, India refused to join more than 110 countries in announcing an end to deforestation by 2030. India’s pledges don’t even mention the NDC target for forests and tree cover, which India has been known to slip into with harmful impacts on both the environment and the environment. livelihood of tribals and other forest dwellers. Read together, these may confirm many of the worst fears about attempts to dilute environmental regulations in favor of corporate interests. Second, India also did not join a global methane pledge by more than 100 countries to reduce emissions of the short-lived but potent greenhouse gas by 30% from 2020 levels by 2030, when methane is one of the fastest-growing emissions in India. Is.
Glasgow, on the other hand, launched another international climate initiative called Infrastructure for Resilient Island States (IRIS) with the aim of providing India with technical, knowledge and financial support to small island nations with the help of developed countries. I wish such initiatives were taken in India too, where urban flooding is gaining alarming dimensions due to excessive rainfall due to coastal erosion, sea level rise, and haphazard urbanization.
It would also be ideal if the continuous updating of the NDC was done through a cross-partisan multi-stakeholder consultation process that would make it truly “nationally determined” and implemented.
D. Raghunandan is with Delhi Science Forum, a constituent of All India People’s Science Network
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