The staff at KC General Hospital in Bengaluru is preparing to face any eventuality of the Covid outbreak. , Photo credit: Sudhakara Jain
To ensure preparedness, the state’s COVID-19 Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) has sought the help of experts from IISc and the Indian Statistical Institute (ISI) to use mathematical modeling to estimate the number of COVID-19 cases in Bengaluru and across the state. There is a burden of COVID-19. Based on the emerging trajectory of the BF.7.
In its 189th meeting held on Sunday, December 25, the TAC requested Professor Rajesh Sundaresan, IISc, and Professor Siva Atreya, ISI, to prepare an estimate of the likely caseload in January-February.
no reliable data
In the meeting, experts made a presentation titled “Current COVID-19 immunity scenario in Karnataka and Bengaluru”. TAC Chairman MK Sudarshan quoted from the presentation Hindu In the context of the emerging global trajectory, especially in the context of China, estimating the number of COVID-19 cases is difficult at this point of time as there is no reliable and official data available.
“However, it is generally believed that BF.7, a sub-variant of Omicron, may not trigger a wave as the population here has hybrid immunity (vaccine plus natural infection). But as a precautionary measure, strict Steps should be taken and the evolution of the pandemic in the state should be carefully studied to initiate further action.We have requested these experts from IISc and ISI to study and give a projection for the next two months in Karnataka.
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“We have requested them to give us an estimate in a week as it will be helpful in pandemic management in terms of testing, beds, medicines and oxygen,” he said.
Minor XBB wave in Bengaluru
As per the TAC report, the experts said in their presentation, the data and models suggested that there was a minor XBB wave in Bengaluru in November 2022. The same is likely for Karnataka. The immunity scenario of Karnataka is that of a population with three doses and infection in January-February 2022 (BA.1/.2) or in July-September 2022 (BA.4/.5/2.75). These are probably due to the low caseload and low severity,” according to his presentation.
“The data indicates that the immune escape of XBB is higher than the other variants of concern BQ.1.1, BA.2.75.2, and BF.7. The variant BF.7 was detected in July 2022 at a few locations in India , but BA.5 and XBB variants are still dominant. In Peru, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, XBB has overtaken BQ.1, BA.5,” the presentation said.
“Increased transmission in China and elsewhere will lead to the emergence of new variants. We should scale up vaccination (for new eligible and boosters) in vulnerable districts, which can be identified by pediatric serological survey. In addition to increasing the sequencing of severe cases in hospitals, clinical surveillance should also be intensified to track changes in symptoms.
They also suggested that a sentinel survey should be conducted using the serosurvey protocol – to obtain snapshots of infection and samples for sequencing. He added that neutralization assay studies should also be conducted on sera from local population for accurate understanding of local immunity scenario.