The new president must put Zambia’s public finances in order and restore civil liberties
The resounding victory of new Zambian President Hakende Hichilema on 12 August in his sixth bid for the high office was a resounding rebuke against an unpopular regime. Mr. Hichilema, leader of the United Party for National Development (UPND), won over his predecessor Edgar Lungu of the Patriotic Front (PF) by more than a million votes in a highly polarized climate.
Army patrols in major cities on the eve of polling; a cyber security law, apparently enacted months ago, to curb the spread of fake news; Social media platforms closed on election day; And threats from the independent media added to the fears of election rigging. The event saw a record turnout of over 70% in the country.
controversial move
Sri Lungu had set his sights on expanding his rule. First, he ensured that he could bypass the legally prescribed two-term limit for a president. In December 2018, the Constitutional Court upheld Mr Lungu’s eligibility to participate in the previous month’s elections. It maintained that the latter’s ascent in the January 2015 by-election could not be treated as a full first term as he was elected to serve the remainder of his deceased predecessor’s term.
Their second objective was to prevent the risk of losing in the event of a close contest. To this end, he drafted a constitutional amendment last year to replace the two-stage election process. Under the proposal, if the candidate with the maximum votes fails to clear 50%+1 ballots in the first round of voting, he will be authorized to seek a coalition government instead of facing his nearest rival. The bill did not get the required majority for a constitutional amendment.
No less controversial than these two moves was voter record rigging. The Election Commission deferred the complicated exercise of compiling new voter registers until just a year before the August 2021 elections. The delay created a legal challenge on the grounds that it violated the constitutional requirement for continuous registration between elections. As millions of voters were allowed less than a month to register amid the COVID-19 restrictions, civil society groups expressed concerns about the potential deprivation of a large number of citizens. Defying past practice, the authorities refused an independent audit of the new rolls.
the road ahead
Mr. Hichilema, a business tycoon, begins the daunting task of putting Zambia’s public finances in order. As his government negotiates a bailout package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), he can count on the support of the country’s seasoned economists and central bankers who have publicly advocated for such a deal. The second largest producer of copper in Africa, Zambia last year defaulted on external debt of about $12 billion. The government benefited from the G-20 initiative on concessional terms of repayment on bilateral loans following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, private bondholders have rejected Lusaka’s plea to defer interest payments in the absence of an IMF rescue and reforms to its domestic finances. They also have concerns about being on the same level as all creditors. Their concerns in particular pertain to the generally opaque terms that Chinese investors enter into their trade with African countries.
While the economic priorities of the new government in Lusaka require immediate attention, the consolidation of political and civil liberties may not be in agreement with what has been a major disaster in recent years. According to a 2021 report by the Varieties of Democracy Project, the country was described as one of the fastest-destroying democracies in the world. The millions of people who voted for Mr. Hichilema in office will be eager to see that stain fade as quickly as possible. For the present, this will be no small feat.
Garimela Subramaniam is the Director – Strategic Initiatives, Agnoshine Technologies Pvt Ltd
.