A report by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) on Climate Change and Food Systems said that India’s food production could fall by 16% and the number of people at risk of hunger could increase by 23% by 2030.
These estimates are part of a model that has been used to evaluate the impact of climate change on overall food production, food consumption (kcal per person per day), net trade of major food commodity groups and populations at risk of starvation. had gone. The effect, as the model is called, simulates national and international agricultural markets. It was developed with input from scientists from the Consortium of International Agricultural Research Centers (CGIAR) and other major global economic modeling efforts, notes the report.
The number of Indians suffering from hunger is expected to increase to 73.9 million in 2030 and to 90.6 million if the effects of climate change are included. Under similar circumstances, the overall food production index will come down from 1.6 to 1.5.
On a positive note, climate change will not affect the average calorie consumption of Indians and the climate change scenario is also projected to be around 2,600 kcal per person per day by 2030.
Baseline projections indicate that global food production will increase by about 60% from 2010 levels by 2050 in the context of climate change. Due to projected growth in population and income, production and demand are projected to grow more rapidly in developing countries, especially in Africa, than in developed countries.
However, these projections have not yet included the long-term impacts of COVID-19 and other current geopolitical factors. Diets outside high-income countries are moving toward high-value foods, including more fruits and vegetables, processed foods, and animal-source foods. Meat production in South Asia and West and Central Africa is projected to double by 2030 and triple by 2050. Despite this increase, the level of per capita consumption in developing countries will remain less than half of those in developed countries. Demand for processed foods is also reflected in increased production of oil crops: production is expected to more than double in Southeast Asia and West and Central Africa by 2050. Production of fruits and vegetables is projected to more than double in most regions (Central and West Asia and North Africa; East and Southern Africa; and West and Central Africa) by 2050. By the same year, average dietary energy consumption is estimated to exceed 3,000 kcal per person per day, with a global increase of about 10%.
However, regional differences in access to food mean that around 500 million people are estimated to be at risk of starvation. Globally, about 70 million more people will be at risk of hunger due to climate change, including more than 28 million in East and Southern Africa, the report said.
The average temperature across India is projected to rise between 2.4 °C and 4.4 °C by 2100. Similarly, heat waves are projected to triple in India and 0.71 days per decade in Pakistan by 2100.