The Rise of You and a Central Question

Under the Bharatiya Janata Party-dominated system, most political parties have struggled to expand their political space. There are only two exceptions. The first is the regional parties of the East and the South whose linguistic identity or appeal to sub-nationalism has found a renewed resonance among voters. The other exception is the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), a centrist populist party that has matured into a party of national prominence emerging under the Narendra Modi-era.

The AAP has done this by cleverly negotiating the opportunities and dangers inherent in the BJP-led system. It has prepared itself to occupy the political space that has opened up under the Modi era with the Congress party’s relentless denigration. In the recent Punjab Assembly elections – where it came to power, winning 92 seats out of 117 – it rode on an anti-incumbency mood that was partly modeled with unrest over agricultural laws that were bulldozed by the central government. At the same time, it has tried to neutralize the ideological threat of the BJP by working within the limits set by the broader ideological framework of the BJP.

post 2019 strategy

This second strategy crystallized after it lost the 2019 Lok Sabha election, when it effected a decisive shift in its path of expansion. Before that election, the AAP attempted to expand through high-profile attempts to capture the opposition space by attacking the central government and the prime minister. In the three years since, it has shifted away from the national realm, instead focusing on local issues in pursuit of a gradual state by state strategy.

The focus of this article is to answer a central question: Will the rise of the AAP threaten the BJP-dominated system or will it contribute to its maintenance? The answer may not be quite as straightforward as it depends on the AAP’s particular strategic position in relation to the BJP-led system: a spectrum from acceptance to disapproval to confrontation. Being a dynamic variable, this strategic position varies with time and context. The only constant is that AAP will try to take the position which is calculated to be most beneficial to its rise.

The BJP-led system consists of three elements: the ideological dominance of Hindu nationalism; The unparalleled popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and the unbridled power of the central government machinery.

Since 2019, AAP has been constantly shying away from challenging the BJP on all these elements. In line with the party’s state-wise strategy, the AAP has preferred to take on the state-level BJP governments by downplaying their corruption and inefficiencies, and presenting its ‘Delhi Model of Governance’ as an alternative. According to the results of the Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Goa assembly elections (which coincided with the Punjab and Manipur elections), the scheme is not working well.

It should be noted that AAP’s stupendous victory in Punjab is an anomaly in many ways. This in itself does not prove or disprove the strategic value of AAP’s position in the BJP-dominated system. Punjab was strange in being a state where all traditional parties were maligned – a dream scenario for you. It was also a state where the BJP was not a major player and the central government was highly unpopular. These situations are not likely to replicate in the other states you are eyeing; Therefore, Punjab does not provide a reliable map for future expansion.

next step for you

The next phase of AAP’s expansion will run through states with largely bipolar competition between the Congress and the BJP – states such as Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat, Haryana and possibly Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan.

To be successful in this area, you have to learn more from your failures in Goa and Uttarakhand (states with similar political dynamics) than your successes in Punjab. And it is these failures, well, that have informed the latest change in AAP’s political strategy, which was manifested in AAP leader and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s speech in the Delhi Assembly.

AAP now appears to be revising its strategic position in the BJP-dominated system from acceptance to disapproval. Breaking down several self-imposed slang, Mr Kejriwal underscored the change in his party’s approach by personally attacking Mr Modi (’56-inch chest’ and even ‘Hitler’s dramatic with references); In an indirect criticism of the Hindu nationalist propaganda of the BJP represented by the film, The Kashmir Files, and condemning the Centre’s control over independent institutions as reflected in the postponement of the Delhi Municipal Elections.

Many observers have downplayed Mr Kejriwal’s new avatar for AAP’s new ambition to fast-track itself into the primary national opposition to take on the BJP, on the back of its electoral victory in Punjab. However, this would misinterpret both the rationale and nature of your strategic change.

First, let’s get to the logic. As mentioned earlier, this change has less to do with success in Punjab than failures in Uttarakhand and Goa. Both these states were marked by high levels of anti-incumbency wave against state governments, and AAP hoped that alternative models of governance would propel the party to become a major player. In Uttarakhand, in particular, the AAP hoped that its centre-right platform (the position between the Congress and the BJP) would help it attract disillusioned voters to the BJP. Yet, in both the states, the AAP, barring a very low double-digit vote-share, also failed to open its account in Uttarakhand.

on pro-incumbency

One of the major takeaways from this round of state elections is that the trend of separating state and national elections has reversed. This trend was reflected in the poor performance for the BJP in the state elections between 2018 and 2021. However, these elections mark a sharp break, where the central government and Mr. Modi’s popularity buoyed the BJP in all the four states it had won. In Uttarakhand and Goa, pro-incumbency for the central government neutralized the high level of anti-incumbency against state governments. The result was that the BJP made a comeback in both the states, capturing its vote-share to a large extent from the previous elections.

There are two lessons to be learned from this for you. One, the party’s state-specific strategies against the BJP cannot ignore the BJP’s broader national appeal. In other words, if BJP voters continue to vote for him on the governance model presented by you, then you cannot have Hindu nationalism and an agnostic stance towards Mr. Modi. And second, AAP’s cautious and limited opposition to the BJP also hurts it from the other end as anti-BJP voters move towards a more aggressive Congress stance. As the national importance of both pro-incumbency (Mr. Modi, Hindutva) and anti-incumbency (unemployment, inflation) in state elections is increasing, a major national element is missing in AAP’s local strategies.

point of view

Does this mean that the AAP is about to revive its pre-2019 phase of confrontation with its Modi government, or become part of a broader opposition alliance against the BJP? The answers are probably in the negative. The party is unlikely to abandon its carefully planned state-by-state strategy in favor of Dart ahead of another time to capture the national opposition space. As a party capable of learning from its mistakes, one would not expect AAP to forget the lessons of the last two general elections in a hurry.

AAP’s actions over the years have shown that it has accepted the stability of the BJP-led system. The results of the recent state elections may have reinforced this impression. AAP’s long-term strategy is to turn the Congress into an alternate pole for the BJP. Towards that end, AAP’s strategic position in the BJP-dominated system may be between acceptance and disapproval. The stage of confrontation with the BJP-dominated system can only come after this long period of time, to convince Deng Xiaoping, to hide his strength and stomp his time.

Asim Ali is a political researcher and columnist based in Delhi