The road ahead for Aseem Munir

A senior general of the Pakistani Army, Lt. Gen. Syed Asim Munir attends a ceremony in Islamabad, Pakistan, Tuesday, Nov. 1, 2022. Photo Credit: AP

There is no doubt that the army chief is more important than the prime minister in Pakistan. A prime minister can appoint an army chief – but then if the selection is the wrong person, it could be curtains for the prime minister, as the country’s history has shown time and again. In 1999, when a prime minister (Nawaz Sharif) tried to sack an army chief (Pervez Musharraf) whom he himself had appointed, he (Mr Sharif) ended up in jail.

while we wait and see what kind of Army Chief General Asim Munir will makeThe actions of his predecessors – their likes and dislikes – provide an indication of how an individual and the institution under him can influence the course of politics in Pakistan.

History as a Guide

Since the restoration of democracy in 1988 after the Zia-ul-Haq years, Prime Ministers Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif were removed from office on five occasions – sometimes directly when the President had the National Assembly dissolved. had the power to do so, or the way through judicial disqualification. Recently, Imran Khan was ousted as prime minister through the parliamentary route, a first for Pakistan.

But make no mistake that on all these occasions the powers of disqualification were exercised by the courts or by an executive decision by the president to dissolve the National Assembly only after the signature of the army chief. He has the responsibility of becoming or not becoming the Prime Minister of the country.

Pakistan is always in a state of crisis. But this time, the ever-increasing economic difficulties along with this year’s devastating floods have redefined the term crisis for Pakistan. General Munir took power At a time when the need for the military and civilian leadership to work together has never been greater.

General Munir is the second army chief Ashfaq Parvez has previously served as the Director General of Pakistan’s infamous spy agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Directorate after Kayani (2007–13). (General Kayani did not share his predecessor Pervez Musharraf’s views on peace with India, and the LoC heated up after he came to power. The November 2008 Mumbai terror attacks also happened when General Kayani was in chief.)

A Pakistani journalist in Lahore told this writer that by appointing General Munir, the Sharif brothers (Nawaz and Shehbaz) ensured that the new chief would not be an “Imran Khan supporter” unlike Lt Gen Faiz Hameed, who is known to be close to Mr. Known as Mine. It is believed that Lt Gen Hameed has now resigned.

Though Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan have been at loggerheads for years (they compete for the same constituency), the two leaders seem to be in the same boat when it comes to relations with the military. Two years ago, sitting in London, Nawaz Sharif was targeting General Qamar Javed Bajwa, whom he had appointed as army chief in 2016, and planning to remove then ISI chief Faiz Hameed as prime minister in 2017. Khan, much later, after a long “same page” honeymoon with General Bajwa, parted ways with him when Asim Munir was appointed ISI chief, and then the most brutal act against a serving army chief by a Pakistani politician. The attacks started.

No-Nonsense Task Master

General Munir has been described as a tough, no-nonsense executive. Already, there are reports that he has appointed a new chief of public relations wing of army, a Major-Gen. Like many other heads of state, he is making significant changes to the command structure and can trust people in positions of power.

But the larger issue of political and economic instability in Pakistan still hangs over. And they are as much in Gen Munir’s corner as they are in the corner of Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, who is facing intense political heat as Mr Khan takes his fight to the streets.

Besides dealing with Mr Khan’s challenge and navigating the country’s politics, the wider military-civilian relationship is something Gen Munir will have to contend with.

In 1998, Nawaz Sharif sent General Jehangir Karamat packing as army chief because “General JK”, as he was known, had dared to hold public consultations on how to run the country’s affairs . General Karamat only said that “unlike countries with economic potential, we [Pakistan] Polarization driven by vindictiveness and insecurity could not afford the effects of expedient policies. It is a thought that makes a fair analysis of the situation in Pakistan even today. He warned of a “permanent election campaign atmosphere in the country”. General Karamat was dismissed by Nawaz Sharif for suggesting the creation of a National Security Council/Committee that would “institutionalize decision making”.

Can General Munir keep the Pakistan Army above political water and focus on its ‘real’ work? Or, like most heads of state before him, will he pay lip service to keeping the military out of politics while manipulating the course of his country?

Observers will watch for early signs.