TeaHis year 2022 has been eventful so far. Covid-19 endured. The January 6 attack on Capitol Hill undermined democracy and shook the foundations of the US-led global order. This was followed by the Russo-Ukraine War. Energy and food prices rose while inflation increased and Russia’s role in global affairs weakened.
The recent downturn of the British economy has exposed the ruins of the once mighty empire. The readiness with which the Germans lifted their skirts and ran to China was an indication of the fragility of Europe’s economic superpower. Security priority over economic development by China in 20thThe -party congress in October is a foretaste of its continued assertiveness. Politically stable India registered impressive growth during this uncertain period and contributed to regional and international stability.
Change in the global order is inevitable
Change in the global order is imminent. The US-led global order, which has served us well since the end of the Cold War in 1991, is crumbling. However, the US is pulling out all the stops to maintain its leading position, according to Annpractical sSecurity sstrategy, Intends to establish a China-centric world order through Chinese President Xi Jinping Global Security Initiative (GSI) And a growing military despite a stagnant economy underpinned by declining demographics and a draconian zero-Covid policy. Russia is supporting Xi in this effort.
While it is clear that the two poles will compete, there is ambiguity about the resulting global order. In July this year, the news publication Nikkei Asia expressed a ‘tripolar world’. The third pole was envisaged as emerging ‘neutral’ countries like India, Turkey and some other countries whose influence is growing through balancing acts. However, that concept is very amorphous. One cannot make a polemic about different countries like Turkey and India. Interestingly, in 2011, economist Arvind Virmani envisioned a tripolar world comprising the US, India and China. an incident Feather Carnegie Endowment For International Peace, Washington DC, However, India emerging as the ‘third pole’ needs testing.
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India as a balance bridge across the third pole
Most populous country with third largest economy (in due course) There is a need to make a place in international affairs. Having said that, could it be the third pole? As the US and China compete intensely to establish their spheres of influence, the world is being pushed into a bipolarity. Consciously, countries have started hedging according to their national interests so that they do not get stuck. In this environment, there is a need for a large country to balance these poles so that other smaller countries can find their place. In these unclear times, a rising India with its non-aligned experience can handle multilateral engagements. This ‘bridge and balance’ could be the third pole. Although unclear, there is an emerging view that India fits that role.
new York Times is of opinion That “India can use its unparalleled leverage as one of the world’s largest countries that is a friend of both East and West to pressure Russia to end its war in Ukraine.” It cites India’s behind-the-scenes role when the United Nations negotiated to free Ukrainian grain blocked by Russia. Later, when international concern grew during Russian shelling near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, India requested a retreat to the east. in another Article, new York Times Highlights that it was Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi who told Russian President Vladimir Putin that “this is not the time for war” while Xi Jinping simply backtracked.
India has quietly de-escalated tensions at critical moments. For new York Times– Veterans of Western Media – Elucidating such views is the recognition that the world needs India to solve its problems. This view also resonates in a Article By Teahe south china morning post title In the global power struggle, India is determined to be the friend of all and friend of none. And it is interesting to see how a Turkish writer supports this view.
shift analysis
This subtle change requires a more in-depth understanding. Until recently, the democratic West led by the US saw India as a weak democracy with authoritarian shades far removed from it. India, a key member of China’s chosen platforms for global leadership, the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), and the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) ratified the idea. To resolve the issues, the anti-west SCO is to be chaired by India next year. Despite this, India is considered an important participant in the Quadrilateral security dialogue, or Quad, and the Indo-Pacific construct.
It is also a major member of I2U2 (India, Israel, the United States and the United Arab Emirates), which is being referred to as the ‘Western Quad’. It has strategic partnerships with the US, France, Australia, Japan, UAE and Israel. India’s diasporic and cultural ties are deeply rooted in the West, which is its natural partner. However, it is up to Russia and other Central Asian SCO countries to secure its energy and cover military deficiencies. It is indeed a tight move, but not new to India. As the leader of the Non-Aligned Movement, India became proficient in this. As India has become stronger, the word ‘Non-aligned’ has changed to ‘Neutral’. There is no doubt that whichever side India leans on, it will have the upper hand. So the issue is much more complex than ‘neutrality’.
Regionally, India’s neighbors—Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal—once considered losers from Chinese influence, are coming back into balance. The Middle East is increasingly looking towards India to diversify its strategic options. ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) and other East Asian countries are also expanding their ties with India to balance China and hedge their options. Most importantly, many people in Pakistan, including former Prime Minister Imran Khan, often cite India’s success these days. These incidents are only indicating. India rising centrality in world affairs,
Several other factors contribute to India being the third pole: its geo-strategic position in the Indian Ocean region, economic strength, military capability, response during major disasters such as earthquakes and tsunamis, soft power and diaspora power. On most indicators, India is the only alternative in scale and power to a dwindling China.
It is almost impossible to control China without India. This is going to spoil China’s regional and global ambitions. India is fast emerging as a civilizational power, gradually shedding its colonial past. Despite all the shortcomings, the world knows what to expect from India. There is a trust and credibility factor as India is emerging as a true ‘neutral’ that can enable conflicting parties to resolve issues.
A major factor that escapes attention is that India can make free choices based on its own interests and irrespective of other influences. India has done this several times while evacuating its citizens from conflict zones like Ukraine, where it has taken a similar route to meet its energy needs.
At the same time, India has developed the strength to take on any side, giving priority to its national interests. An example of this phenomenon is India joining the Quad in 2020 following the Chinese aggression along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). As one of the world’s fastest growing economies and a populous country, India can influence global events along with other like-minded countries. on the basis of common interests. This was most visible during the pandemic. From successfully combating Covid to developing vaccines to help other countries, India did it all. Seen in a wider context, it is indeed emerging as the third pole.
A rising India, led by its proven track record and stable politics, has the potential to become the Third Pole. However, India’s success is based on some internal factors. As a global alternative to China, it must wisely handle the dire consequences of pollution, water scarcity and climate change. While India remains politically stable, there remains a political consensus on many issues. Cultural, ethnic and religious diversity is the biggest strength of India. However, the polarization of this diversity often comes out to weaken India. India has one of the most professional and capable military in the world, but it is neglecting Nehruvian proportions for reasons beyond comprehension. India’s internal strengths are also its serious weaknesses.
For it to emerge as the third pole in international affairs, India should focus on its internal factors more than just external factors.
Lt Gen PR Shankar (Retd) is a former DG Artillery and is currently Professor in the Department of Aerospace, IIT Madras. Thoughts are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)