The Party Congress is important because it is being held at a time when China sees the period as the ‘Great Disorder’.
The Party Congress is important because it is being held at a time when China sees the period as the ‘Great Disorder’.
TeaHe 20th Communist Party of China (CPC) Congress To be held at the end of this year. Unlike the kind of circumstances we faced on the eve of some events of the previous Party Congress, no force majeure is anticipated. This is a reflection of President Xi Jinping’s tight control over both the party and state machinery. As of now, it already appears to be a foregone conclusion that Mr. Xi will continue as party general secretary for an unprecedented third term.
Nevertheless, the 20th Party Congress is significant because it is being held at a time when China, for its part, sees the period as a ‘Great Disorder’. Also, after decades of spectacular economic growth, China is currently witnessing a significant economic slowdown, even though its economy is still doing better than most of the world’s economies. Inexplicable as it may seem, the impression China gives today is that it is being ousted by hostile forces.
China’s world view
The main difference between 2012, when Mr. Xi first became the party’s general secretary, and 2022, when he is almost certain to be anointed for a third term, is how China’s world view has changed. Today on the outskirts, the Chinese leadership believes that the United Nations has become inactive and is no longer capable of maintaining global peace. Global economic cooperation and stability, China’s opposition, is irreparably broken. Consensus on almost all matters has been lost after World War II.
Internally too, there has been a change, with more importance given to ideological training in the face of ‘enemy forces’. Its purpose is clearly to ensure complete loyalty to Mr. Xi. The party’s control has been tightened not only over the armed forces, but over all wings of the public security system and apparatus. Protecting “political security” is now a priority.
To coincide with this is an upsurge in nationalism. This is based on China’s perceived concern that China’s “threat of control” has increased, and unity within is critical. In addition, it is important for China to increase its offensive maneuvers, especially in the Indo-Pacific region. Much of this is already evident to an extent, with China showing its ‘escalation domination matrix’ in terms of nuclear weapons and new forms of hybrid warfare at one level and its advanced manufacturing techniques at the other. Is. China’s $15 trillion economy and strong military, and the rapidly closing gap related to state-of-the-art weapons, can be expected to boost the Party Congress’s determination to face any challenge, especially to China’s supremacy in the region. which is situated.
possible outcomes
What seems almost certain is that the Party Congress will put its stamp on Mr. Xi’s current outspoken foreign policy initiatives. The controversy over the recent visits of US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi and later a US delegation to Taiwan is expected to intensify China’s aggressive stance on the Taiwan issue. There is every possibility that it will get the approval of the Party Congress. The party congress is also expected to give Mr Xi a new mandate to defeat all attempts to separate Taiwan from mainland China, if necessary, through the use of military force.
At the same time, the Party Congress can be expected to give Mr. Xi the right and a new mandate to defeat all current US-led maneuvers in the Asia Pacific region that are seen as aimed at weakening China. Growing mistrust of the West, the anticipated break in relations, as well as the portrayal of America and its allies as existential or near-existent enemies are also results from Congress.
Equally, if not more, of importance is that the 20th Party Congress is likely to forever bury Deng Xiaoping’s vision of keeping a low profile until due time. Based on the belief that, given the West’s relative decline in many areas, including the economic and military, this is the opportune moment, the Party Congress may empower Mr. Xi to go to extremes to achieve his goal. supremacy in global affairs.
At the same time, the Party Congress may find this an opportune time to increase the CPC’s domestic legitimacy, claiming that under Mr. Xi’s leadership China has been able to overcome a variety of problems, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the West. All efforts are included. To reduce China’s power and capability. In all likelihood, the People’s Liberation Army would be further boosted, with the party Congress supporting its centrality with regard to several events.
Even on the eve of the Party Congress, it is clear how much opacity is visible in China’s intentions today. There is little clarity available about its long-term or medium-term objectives. Two recent initiatives by China – the Global Development Initiative (GDI) and the Global Security Initiative (GSI) – reflect this. The GDI, which comes nearly nine years after the much-talked-about Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), only encompasses a wide range of aspirations. Unlike the BRI, which saw the creation of infrastructure around the world, the GDI is currently seen as an ‘expression of China’s wisdom’. The purpose behind GSI appears to be even more vague, even as Mr. Xi continues to declare that security is a precondition for growth. No details are available as to what this means.
The Congress could see a range of initiatives in other directions as well. One clue in this regard is Mr. Xi’s recent call for ‘self-reliance’. This is a possible sign that China proposes to gradually distance itself from some of the countries with which it has so far maintained close economic ties, such as the US, Europe and Japan, emphasizing ‘self-reliance’ in its place. And emphasizing its ‘singularity’. ‘ With regard to strategic and advanced technologies. Anyway, China has made very significant progress in emerging areas such as cyber, space and artificial intelligence, which are expected to help it dominate the emerging globalized era. In some sectors such as solar, China already claims to have a stronghold on both technology and raw materials to sustain any such move. An endorsement by the Party Congress to do so would enable China to stay away from countries like the US, on the pretext that it would free China from the vagaries of the so-called ‘free world’.
some concerns
However, the party Congress may see discussion on some ideological issues which are being debated in some circles but no solution has been found so far. The perception of ‘getting rich is not bad’ has changed under Mr. Xi, a firm believer in communist conservatism, and it will be interesting to see how the Party Congress reacts to this. A string of drastic measures taken to curtail the activities of China’s key technology leaders, which have led to a slowdown in the economy, are already heating up debate over ideological principles and policy in China today. It rests on the precise stage of Marxist development in China, which is of great importance to communist theology. However, neither of these parties is likely to rock the boat in Congress.
The impact of the precarious state of the Chinese economy is a significant one, according to many experts, especially in the West. Most agree that the continuity of CPC leadership in recent decades is largely due to the continued performance and progress of the Chinese economy. China’s economy is performing well today compared to the previous days. While 2020 has provided a set of challenges for almost all countries around the world, the political repercussions of the slowing economy in China have the potential to create turmoil in the higher echelons of the Chinese leadership. At the same time, improving the repression environment that exists in China today may be more difficult.
Whether the current situation and concerns about China potentially lagging behind in the next stage of global development with dire consequences for its future will adversely affect Mr. Xi and the current line-up of CPC leaders is debated. But there is little chance that it will seriously undermine Mr. Xi’s leadership at this point in time. Certainly, Mr. Xi is unlikely to face the kind of suffering that Zhao Xiang, who was the CPC’s general secretary from 1987 to 1989, had to go through. Zhao was politically purged and placed under house arrest because he sided with Paramount leader Deng.
Despite all that has been said here, there are still many unavoidable things. Therefore, the shape that the 20th Party Congress may take cannot be predicted safely. While Mr. Xi’s place in history is certain, whether he will accept Mao Zedong as the ‘great helmsman’ is uncertain.
MK Narayanan is a former Director, Intelligence Bureau, former National Security Advisor and former Governor of West Bengal.