Limiting what is happening in J&K to only incentives created by Talibanized Afghanistan may cost India
Today fear prevails in many parts of Kashmir. In turn, this has drawn comparisons with the situation during the 1990s and early 21st century. In the past few weeks, several civilians as well as security and armed forces personnel have been killed by terrorists, some of whom have been labeled as hybrid terrorists, although it is not clear what this phrase refers to. .
ground reality
A predictable reaction to the situation has been the exodus of Hindus, especially Kashmiri Pandits and migrant workers, who fear for their lives and their future. Simultaneously, there has been a perception of growing support for extremism, although it is not clear whether this is actually the case. However, as is the case with all such situations, it is clear that impressions often appear more real than the actual ground realities.
Later, Kashmir came out of the limelight despite concerns expressed in various quarters about the ‘disciplined democracy’ being implemented since the dilution of Article 370 and the reorganization of the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) into two union territories. managed to stay away. . In the absence of a tight press, it is not possible to understand the intensity of the protests against the existing order, and whether they constitute a rejection of the changes effected.
However, incidents of violence continue. Despite this, given the uproar in the immediate aftermath of the changes made in August 2019, a degree of superficial calm seemed to prevail, not much different from what had existed before. Whether or not this peace was brought about by controlled circumstances is difficult to understand.
Given the recent recurrence of violence, it is clear that the situation remains critical. Does this mean that the changes made since August 2019 were simply a ‘victory of will over conscience’, an overestimation of confidence in what was possible by ignoring the past several decades of history, and the failure of several previous attempts? to replace remain so, therefore worth investigating.
pakistan separate
More importantly, what could be the possible reasons for the resumption of escalating violence in Kashmir. Pakistan has always been a factor while assessing the ground situation in Kashmir. However, it is again possible that the lessons of the past that need to be taken – to effectively prevent cross-border extremism or quell Kashmiri opinion – in the fervor to succeed in changing the character of J&K went unheard and Delhi established a degree of direct control. The reluctance to use the time and opportunity to create new opportunities for dialogue with communities in Kashmir, coupled with a reputed interest in not accepting the promises made and the many steps taken to defeat cross-border conspiracies were insufficient, perhaps, , be additional reasons.
Accordingly, Kashmir may, from a distance, appear to reflect the same outlook, similar to that of many pre-conflict, pre-modern, hybrid societies with mixed populations. This would mean that in the case of Kashmir, transition to a more stable society would always prove difficult. Furthermore, Kashmir has tough neighbors like Afghanistan, Pakistan and China, leaving little room for experimentation – a true test for any kind of decision-making.
As violence escalated in Jammu and Kashmir, it became common to associate it with the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. However, this may be an overly simplistic answer to a more complex situation. In the present context, geopolitics is something that cannot and should not be ignored. The sudden violence in Kashmir requires a more careful evaluation of facts rather than simple answers. For example, it is a fact that India’s world outlook has steadily expanded, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, and that many, including some relatively unknown, stress points have emerged. All of this will need to be carefully evaluated before answering – and more so because India is in the middle of two known adversaries (Pakistan and China), a Talibani Afghanistan as its neighbour, and a resurgence of international terrorist groups. , especially Islamic State and al-Qaeda.
China factor
Particularly in this context is China’s continued cooperation with Pakistan on a number of matters, its growing firmness with respect to its territorial claims, face to face India, its opposition to the West giving prominence to India in both Asian and global forums, etc. All these have helped to further strengthen the ties between China and Pakistan. With this is once again the battle for spheres of influence between China and India, which has intensified under Chinese President Xi Jinping. The latter intended to establish an Asian system in which China sits at the cusp of a hierarchical regional order. All this is changing the ground reality and it is worth considering whether Kashmir is emerging as a pressure point in this context.
intelligence is important
What it all boils down to is the need for tougher and better intelligence. Rigorous intelligence is important to avoid misconceptions and miscalculations. The (recent) history of the world is replete with stories of intelligence failures, misconceptions and miscalculations, which led to dire situations, and which could well have been avoided, if there had been better intelligence. Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s serious miscalculations about possessing nuclear weapons based on inaccurate intelligence led to unnecessary involvement of the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in Iraq, following an unfortunate train of events that continues to haunt the world today. Still working. As tensions between India and China continue to rise, the need for rigorous intelligence gathering is critical to control the train of events and avoid any serious miscalculations.
What is common to most, perhaps all, intelligence agencies—despite their degree of competence—is their limited capacity for imagination, In other words, to imagine future events and possibilities. Intelligence agencies, overall, are adept at providing insight into the threats of tomorrow rather than the threats of the future, particularly those that exist beyond the horizon. Furthermore, as intelligence agencies become more devoted to technology, they need to realize that advances in technology are a double-edged sword as far as intelligence is concerned. This should not negate the need for better analysis and also how important it is to provide decision-makers with insight into what is happening in the minds of their opposite numbers.
In the current situation, Indian intelligence agencies must avoid the lapses of both imagination and analysis displayed a few years ago by Western intelligence agencies, who misunderstood, misunderstood and later set the stage in predicting the role of Syed Qutb and his teachings. 9/11 attacks on the Twin Towers in New York and other locations in the US If they had understood what Syed Qutb preached, In other words, that martyrdom was a necessary part of 20th century jihad, they do not underestimate the influence of Islamic theology on terrorist mentality.
Thus, it is important that in most cases the ‘missing dimension’ of intelligence, In other words, imaginative and thinking of superior analytical capabilities, attract the attention of India’s intelligence agencies. Only then will it be possible to understand the nature of current events as harbingers of future threats. It’s important to make sure they don’t ignore signs that may not be very clear at the moment, and keep pursuing more obvious and present aspects. Very narrowly focused intelligence requirements, limited to, for example, tensions with China on the border, or efforts by Pakistan to push in the ‘irregular’ and help Lashkar and Jaish elements cross into India, may prove self-defeating. can. . The scope of intelligence should be very wide and Indian intelligence agencies such as the Intelligence Bureau, Research and Analysis Wing as well as the National Security Council Secretariat should ensure that they have the required capabilities.
There is also the danger of ‘intelligence adjustment’ associated with this, In other words, avoiding challenging conventional assumptions, which may undermine their ability to provide a more accurate picture of the greater threat. Today, when India is facing problems all around, to limit what is happening in Kashmir by a completely Talibanized Afghanistan without analyzing all the facts could cost the country dearly.
MK Narayanan is a former Director, Intelligence Bureau, former National Security Advisor and former Governor of West Bengal.
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