Former Vice Chairman of NITI Aayog, Rajeev Kumar. file | Photo credit: Sandeep Saxena
India will still grow at 6%-7% in the next 2023-24 fiscal even though the economy may be affected by uncertain global conditions, former vice-chairman of NITI Aayog Rajiv Kumar has said. Growing apprehensions of the world going into recession.
Mr. Kumar further said that the US, Europe, Japan and China are also facing a simultaneous slowdown and this could lead to a slowdown in the global economy in the coming months.
“Thankfully, there is no such possibility of a slowdown in India, as even though our growth may be negatively impacted by global conditions, we will still manage to grow at 6-7 per cent in 2023-24,” he said. will do.” PTI in an interview.
The World Bank projected a growth rate of 6.5% on 6 October For the Indian economy for 2022-23, a percentage point drop from its June 2022 projections, citing a deteriorating international environment, while the IMF projects a growth rate of 6.8% for India in 2022 compared to 8.7% in 2021 guessed.
IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva has said that the global economy is moving from a world of relative predictability to one of greater uncertainty.
Responding to a question on high inflation, Shri Kumar said that retail inflation is likely to remain in the range of 6-7% for some more time.
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“After that, my guess is that it should start to peak and then come down,” he said.
Mr Kumar said it largely depends on global oil prices as it may continue to rise Ongoing conflict in Ukraine
“But otherwise the domestic factors of inflation will calm down,” he said. Indicating softening price conditions, retail inflation eased to 6.7% in October, while the wholesale price index fell to a 19-month low, mainly due to weak rates of food articles.
The central bank is mandated to keep inflation at 4% with a margin of 2% up and down. Asked about the impact of a weak Indian rupee on the common man, the former NITI Aayog vice-chairman said the common Indian does not use much imported goods or services in his consumption basket.
According to Mr. Kumar, the rupee which is closer to its real value does not pose many downside risks, much better for the economy than an appreciating and depreciating rupee.
Rupee depreciates 6 paise to close at 81.74 against US dollar on Friday.
On India’s growing trade deficit, Kumar said that with the negative growth of exports in October, it is clear that the country needs real policy focus on the sector on how to expand its exports of both goods and services.
“We now need to have state-specific export promotion policies,” he said. Because there is no point in having an export promotion policy for the whole country.
Elaborating, he said that as Punjab is a double landlocked state and Tamil Nadu is a coastal state, it has centuries of trading experience. “Therefore, to have similar policies of those two states, for example, is not relevant,” he stressed.
India’s exports entered negative territory after a gap of nearly two years, declining by 16.65% to $29.78 billion in October, mainly due to lackluster global demand, even as the trade deficit widened to $26.91 billion. Dollar is done.
Imports rose by nearly 6% to $56.69 billion during the month under review due to increase in arrivals of crude oil and some raw materials such as cotton, fertilizers and machinery.
Responding to a question on some states adopting the old pension scheme (OPS), Mr Kumar said, “It is a backward step. And I don’t think it should be taken.” He said it was being advocated by some opposition parties because of the populist measures.
“I think the Indian economy, the Indian working class, the Indian middle class is maturing and can handle their own pension funds and take advantage of the new pension scheme, which provides a lot more options than the old pension scheme. does,” Mr. Kumar said.
The Punjab cabinet on Friday approved the revival of the old pension scheme, which was discontinued in 2004.