This country is struggling to reverse the shrinking population

This year, its population was almost half of what it was in 1990, Dagda County was deemed too small to support local government and merged with the nearby county.

“The only people here are still retired,” said Ms Frolova, 59.

Latvia could become one of the defining challenges for the industrialized world: it is running out of people.

From Portugal to Singapore and most of the Americas, birth rates are falling, and population growth has stalled or reversed in the industrialized world. This prospect brings with it the specter of a shrinking labor force, an aging population and stagnant economic growth.

In Latvia, that future is already here.

As in much of pre-Soviet Eastern Europe, Latvia’s low birth rate has been exacerbated by decades of youth exodus to high-paying jobs in the West and a reluctance to accept immigrants from outside Europe. The result is a nation whose population is declining faster than other countries such as Japan and Italy, which have lower birth rates.

Since joining the European Union, with its open borders and freedom to operate anywhere in the bloc, in 2004, Latvia has lost 17% of its population; Only neighboring Lithuania has lost more. The working age population declined by 23% over the same period.

Last year, Latvia recorded its lowest births in a century and the fastest population decline in the European Union at 0.8%. This first half of 2021 was worse, with twice as many deaths as births.

Now, this country with a population of less than two million is trying to do something that has historically proved impossible: turn the demographic slide.

This year, the government has adopted new policies aimed at boosting birth rates and repatriating migrants, but has so far declined to encourage immigration from outside the EU.

Adviser to the Prime Minister on Demographic Issues, Imantus Paradnyaks said of the declining population, “It is a very, very serious problem. Latvia is a country of Latvians. We want it to remain a country of Latvians. 100 from now on.” Year.”

According to the Ministry of External Affairs, in January, the government adopted a new plan to work with the diaspora, who now number around 300,000.

The scheme provides funds to encourage expatriates to invest in Latvian businesses and over 1 million euros annually, equivalent to $1.2 million, for Latvian language programs abroad, making them feel more connected and perhaps pulling them back. part of the effort. Funds are also allocated to the government to make personalized offers—including help finding work or housing—to families considering returning.

Migration has slowed somewhat, but migrants have found it difficult to return and live. The minimum monthly wage in Latvia is €500, less than a third that of Germany or Ireland. Even last year during the pandemic, when closed borders made emigration challenging, more Latvians left the country than came home.

Matisse Glagl, 21, returned from the US last year to his family outside the Latvian capital Riga. But he struggled to find work and now he is preparing to go abroad again.

The urge to leave is only partly economic, he said: as a gay man, he also wants a more progressive social environment. “There are a lot more old people here than young people, so we don’t have such a big voice,” he said. “We don’t really get to see the change we want.”

Migration is far worse in rural areas such as Dagda, a few miles from Latvia’s border with Belarus.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, so too did the local economy, which relied on factories, collective farms, and goods commuting from Belarus. Today, Latgale, the area where Dagda is located, has the lowest average salary in Latvia and the highest unemployment rate.

Its population has fallen 30% since 2004, the worst hit since the 2008 financial crisis, when Latvia adopted strict austerity measures.

The roofs of vacant houses collapsed in Dagda. There are no sit-down restaurants left. On the brick façade of an apartment building, a Soviet-era mural proclaims, “The Glory of Labour.” The air smells of wood smoke, with many homes still heated by wood-burning stoves.

When Juris Willems, a former member of the Latvian parliament, finished high school in 2000, there were 11 people in his graduating class. Now, he is left alone in the region – most of his classmates are abroad and his sister is in Ireland. The high school is closing due to not having enough students.

“To be here, you need some extra patriotism, or a family situation you can’t give up,” said Mr Willams, 39.

The departure of young people is taking a toll: Latvia has one of the lowest per capita numbers of doctors and nurses in the European Union. According to the Central Statistics Office, by 2027, it will lose about 90,000 more working-age people, according to which the country will need thousands more medical workers, engineers and craftsmen.

Mr Paradnieks sees growing Latvian families as the solution. Earlier this year, the legislature nearly doubled the state’s monthly per child stipend. Families with more children also get discounts on access to public transportation, housing stipends and special educational scholarships. Although more support is needed for parents, Mr Paradnix said, the percentage of families with at least three children is increasing.

Although Japan has a lower fertility rate than Eastern Europe, its population is not declining as rapidly because young people do not move abroad, according to Paul Moreland, a visiting demographer at St. Antony’s College, Oxford University. Is. Now, even though Latvia’s birth rate has increased dramatically, the declining population over the years has left potential mothers short.

“There are not that many women, and there are quite a few old men,” said Mr. Moreland. “You could probably put the numbers on Syrians and Afghans and Russians, but the Baltic countries are very sensitive to their ethnic mix.”

In recent years, Latvia’s neighbors have managed to reverse the demographic decline, at least temporarily, by increasing immigration to some extent.

Estonia has been growing since 2014, mainly thanks to efforts to attract highly skilled workers and provide them with easy accommodation. Lithuania has had positive net migration since 2019, and the population last year ticked up for the first time since Soviet times. Immigration to Poland, mainly from Ukraine, has now overtaken emigration. Germany would also be shrinking if not for migration.

But Latvia remains resistant to immigration from outside the EU, and net migration remains negative.

During the Cold War, the Soviet government sent thousands of migrants to the Baltic states, partly with the goal of making them more Russian. That experience left scars, government officials said.

“As a small country, with 50 years of business in our memory, we have always been a little afraid of foreigners coming in,” said Alita Gavele