This NSP cannot change the direction of Pakistan

In its 36th meeting on December 27, 2021, the National Security Committee (NSC) of Pakistan approved Country’s “First Time” National Security Policy (NSP), Seven years in the making, the NSP is designed as a “comprehensive national security framework” and covers a period of five years from 2022-26. The NSP seeks to ensure “safety, security and dignity of the citizen of Pakistan”. To achieve this objective, it keeps “economic security” at its “core”. Apart from economic and military matters, the NSP also covers issues related to foreign policy, terrorism, water security and demography. Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan, who chaired the NSC meeting, called the NSP’s approval a “historic moment”. The cabinet of Pakistan supported the NSP on 28 December.

signifies a fundamental change

Notably, the public version of the NSP has not been released yet. This will be done “in due course”, according to a press release issued by the office of the Prime Minister of Pakistan. However, Pakistan’s National Security Adviser Moeed W Yusuf said on 28 December that this would be done within a week to 10 days. Should it be released soon, it would show that a kind of consensus has been reached between the elected government and the Pakistan Army on NSP. However, delays can be a sign of remaining difficulties.

But even if the military is clearly on board, the question remains whether it is prepared to transform Pakistan from a tough military security state to a state where the military competes with other state institutions for resources and last. The decision is taken by the political leadership. The rationale for giving primacy to the economy is that national policies will be directed towards development through resource allocation. This would mark a fundamental change in the direction of Pakistan, as it would reduce the army’s demand for resources.

this is the first army

The Pakistani military has always made the first claim on the country’s revenue. It never let the defense spending shine completely. Nor, for that matter, does it allow the investigation of its vast network of business enterprises and real estate for the benefit of its officers and men. From time to time, some officials have emphasized the importance of “geoeconomics”, but rarely has the military shown any desire to divert resources from defense to other sectors. And, it has convinced most of the people that national defense has to be sacrificed due to external, mainly India and internal enemies.

More than 40 years ago during Pakistan’s President Zia-ul-Haq’s period, a Pakistani compared India to his country that his country’s military controlled everything in the name of defence, but “what is it really about”. fending off”? Despite the passage of time and geopolitical global and regional changes, the veracity of my interlocutor’s claim remains true today. Thus, if the NSP is to mark a significant change in Pakistan’s systems and governance, the first step would be transparency in actual military expenditure and the abolition of brave Pakistani scholar Ayesha Siddiqa as “Mil.Inc”. It doesn’t seem to be on the horizon.

An ‘India obsession’

In the context of the NSP, Pakistan also needs to ask itself this question: can it ever achieve human security for its people and bring the country to normalcy and development path without radically changing its India policy? can bring As a product of the two-nation theory, Pakistan has defined its identity – to put it bluntly but clearly – thus: it is what India is not. Since nearly 75 years of its creation, Pakistan has been on the hunt for a positive identity that would allow it to release its obsession with India. His so-called commitment to the ‘Kashmir issue’ is a subset of his overall negative attitude towards India. This deep animosity has prevented it from adopting rational policies towards India. Rational approaches would have enabled it to exercise its position ‘legally’ but ‘practically’ with India in areas that would be in its national interest.

An example of its irrational approach is its position on the issue of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) after the constitutional changes of August 5, 2019. Pakistan could maintain its stand on J&K and still trade with India as it was in its interest. to do this. Instead, it decided to suspend the brief business relationship that existed. Countries can take a selective approach to register protest. Sacrifice of interests is futile especially where such sacrifices do not yield results, as clearly not, from Pakistan’s point of view, on developments in post-2019 Jammu and Kashmir.

While Pakistan’s ideology and mentality prevents it from developing a real relationship with India, it also affects its social development and economic management of the country apart from draining resources from development to defence. Pakistan aspires to be a society full of liberal Islamic faith. However, its security apparatus has actively sought to use Islamism against India. This has led to violent communal groups and marginalized progressive elements of civil society. The culture of Islamism is evident from the veneration of the grave of Mumtaz Qadri, the assassin of Punjab Governor Salman Taseer. It is astonishing that Qadri, who was hanged for the crime of his murder, which he was bound to protect, millions of people applauded him for serving Islam by killing Taseer, who was accused of blasphemy. He was considered sympathetic. There is another aspect. Islamist forces are also allies of feudal elements in the Pakistani political elite, and together they support hostile and irrational policies towards India, including in the economic and commercial spheres.

China as an anchor

For a country like Pakistan, the natural economic partner is a big neighbour. This is especially so in an era when economies are not barricaded, as was the case for several decades in the latter half of the last century. Refusing to start trade with India, Pakistan has looked to other economic and commercial partners, of which China is by far the most important. Security relations were the cornerstone of China-Pakistan relations. Now, Pakistan expects China to offer its assistance to transform its economy. It sees the mechanism to play an important role through connectivity, port development, power generation and other investments under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). All this can be of help but they cannot be a substitute for being integrated with a larger neighboring economy.

This can only come with the opening up of trade and connectivity with India. 25 years ago, Chinese President Jiang Zemin addressed the Pakistani Senate calling for a temporary end to disputes so that they do not affect interstate relations. He may have mentioned this in the context of Chinese-South Asian relations, but these remarks also apply to the Pakistani approach to their neighbours. But the Pakistanis ignored the words of Jiang Zemin. Today, with the regional and international context completely changed, it is unlikely that President Xi Jinping would give the same advice to Pakistan. However, this does not diminish the veracity of Jiang Zemin’s ideas.

Thus, whatever the NSP may say, the people of Pakistan can neither have human security nor a successful economy without cooperative relations with India. Which the Pakistani army and political elite are not ready to accept. Hence NSP cannot change the unhappy direction of Pakistan.

Vivek Katju is a retired Indian Foreign Service officer