throttling Tunisia’s democracy

on 16 August, referendum results An amendment to the national constitution proposed by Tunisian President Kais Saied was formally endorsed by the Election Commission, effectively ending the country’s brief encounter with a democratic system. Tunisia, the shining success story of the Arab Spring, now looks to autocracy and anarchy.

It has taken a year to reach this nadir. Last year, on 25 July, Mr Syed abruptly suspended parliament, sacked the prime minister, deprived assembly members of their immunity, and announced that he would now rule by presidential order. . Members of Parliament trying to enter the Assembly were stopped by the armed forces.

presidential coup

A noted constitutional expert with no party or political affiliation, Mr. Sayeed came to power in 2019 with a landslide victory over several established politicians. Soon after, he began to express disdain for his country’s political class, refused to negotiate with political parties and civil society groups, and pursued constitutional “locks” that allowed him to influence economic reforms. for which the immediate demand was made. People. On July 25, 2021, he finally effected a “coup” against the same constitution that had empowered him.

The presidential coup initially enjoyed considerable popular support – it was estimated that Mr. Saeed had the support of more than 80% of his people, with support hovering between 70% and 80% over the next few months. This was largely because, as the country gave itself a democratic constitution in 2015, the assembly was deeply divided by various political groups, making it impossible to pass legislation to bring about the reforms needed in the country. Instead, the Assembly was seen as a corrupt and dysfunctional institution. The amnesty granted by Parliament in 2017 to those from the former regime who were accused of corruption and criminal conduct completely discredited the assembly and the democratic process.

In December 2021, Mr Syed announced a “road map” for political change – an online “consultation on constitutional reform”, a committee to propose amendments to the constitution, and finally a nationwide one on proposed changes in July 2022. Referendum. In April of this year, the president dissolved parliament, and launched an inquiry into a “conspiracy” between prominent political leaders, including Rachid Ghanouchi, the head of the Islamist Ennahda party.

editorial | One man rule: on the Tunisian referendum

But Mr. Sayeed got his priorities wrong. While they dabbled in constitutional changes, Tunisia plunged deep into an economic malaise: inflation reached 8%, while unemployment was 16%, reaching 40% among the youth. As the currency depreciated by 60% and purchasing power fell by 40%, Tunisia’s credit rating was downgraded to ‘CCC’. After the war in Ukraine, as wheat supplies from Russia and Ukraine were disrupted and prices soared, Mr. Saeed decided that those spreading “fake news” about food shortages would be arrested.

Mr. Saeed began negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to get $4 billion in economic aid, but the IMF called for a sharp reduction in subsidies on goods and services, a moratorium on public sector wages and a slew of public sector companies. Emphasis on privatization. , These terms separated the country’s powerful trade union, the Tunisian General Labor Union (UGTT, in its French acronym), from the president.

popular disillusionment

The UGTT played a major role in the Arab Spring uprising that overthrew President Zine al-Abidin Ben Ali in 2011. It then facilitated national reconciliation between feudal politicians, leading to a nationally accepted constitution of 2015, a feat that led the UGTT to join three other Tunisian groups to win the Nobel Peace Prize that year. Last year, the UGTT initially supported Mr. Sayeed’s initiative to strengthen the presidency, but amid deteriorating economic conditions and the president’s misguided focus on constitutional changes, it became a sharp critic of the president. On 16 June, it called for a general strike to protest the economic situation and the conditions being proposed by the IMF for its loans. With one million of its members in a country of 12 million, the UGTT is a formidable rival, with the potential to sway popular opinion, particularly against the president’s political and economic plans.

Constitutional amendments to achieve a “new republic” were drafted by an advisory committee appointed by the President. These amendments had only one purpose – to strengthen the President by removing all constraints on his exercise of irrepressible power. One commentator noted that the amendments provided for “an unbridled presidential system, an omnipotent president, a powerless parliament and a toothless judiciary”.

However, there is now a widespread indifference among Tunisians about the president’s policies, which is reflected in the absence of active support for his initiative in the shape of popular demonstrations or actual votes in his favor – the referendum returned just over 27%. Attracted voting. With 96% of the ‘yes’ vote, the EC declared the amendments approved.

Outlook for Tunisia

For months, US senators, congressmen, diplomats and academics have been mourning the death of Tunisia’s democracy and calling on President Joe Biden to pressure Mr Syed to stop the political backslide. But despite Mr Biden’s clear commitment to promoting democracy globally, no magic formula has emerged to fix the situation.

Means to cut military or economic aid has been seen as a non-starter: the Tunisian armed forces are the major US allies and central to the fight against extremist forces, while less funding can further improve the living conditions of Tunisians. will make it more pathetic. Mr. Saeed has the option of turning to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates for political and economic support – both believed to have led to Mr. Saeed’s constitutional coup to remove the Islamist Ennahda as a political player in the country. was supported.

As the enthusiasm of a decade ago turned to ashes, the Tunisian experience has highlighted the difficult challenges in achieving political and economic change after the overthrow of an authoritarian order. Crony capitalism, in which economic power rests with a few business families, persists and works closely with politicians who integrate themselves with the ‘deep position’ and prioritize individual interest over national welfare.

Outside players are of no help – the US has neither interest nor ability to promote democracy, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE work diligently to maintain a democratic system that is an integral part of political Islam. Provides space, no matter how friendly. And as the nation sinks into an economic abyss, the IMF remains committed to policy approaches that indicate little sensitivity to people’s suffering.

Mr. Said is only the latest example of a populist enthusiast who promises El Dorado, even as it takes his country into the swamp.

Talmiz Ahmed is a former diplomat