In the Republican primary, Trump’s political footprint will likely crush the strongest of rivals. (file)
Washington:
If you think you’ve seen this movie before, it’s because you’ll be even more nervous except the second time around. Yes, world: Get ready for Biden vs. Trump 2.
It’s a possible takeaway from the scandal that engulfed Donald Trump over the alleged hoarding of secret government documents nearly two years after he lost re-election to Joe Biden.
If Trump had previously been considered likely to announce a 2024 withdrawal bid, one school of thought is that the FBI’s search of Florida assets, allowing Trump to portray himself as a martyr, makes the decision almost sure.
“I believed he was the first to run — I’m stronger in my faith now,” Republican Senator Lindsey Graham told Fox News.
If Trump runs, the theory goes, so do Biden, of course. Despite being the oldest person to ever hold the job at age 79, Biden sees it as his historic mission to rid the United States of Trump.
And so, after avoiding the tense, sometimes nightmare 2020 election, Americans can do it again.
This time it will be the reverse – Biden, then 81, and Trump, 78, the challenger.
Given Trump’s persistent lies that he won the 2020 election and the evidence for his role in instigating the January 6 violent attack on Congress, a rematch would be ugly.
“If you thought Trump’s 2016 and 2020 campaigns were bad, you saw nothing,” said American University history professor Alan Lichtman.
Good for both sides?
For practitioners of the dark political arts, the FBI raid on Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort is a game-changing moment that, ironically, could benefit both sides.
The rationale for Biden is clear.
The biggest names in the Republican Party are on the ropes, facing not only FBI investigations but legal cases involving allegations of everything from election spoofing to fraud and rape.
It’s an embarrassment for Republicans and encouraging for Democrats who decide to take control of Congress, avoid a projected wipeout in November’s midterm elections, or even achieve a surprise victory of their own. are dreaming of.
“Trump is like a steroid boost for Democrats,” Jim Kessler at Democratic think tank Third Way told The Hill.
As the editorial board of the pro-Republican Wall Street Journal puts it: Republicans “should make the midterm referendum in the first two years of Mr. Biden. Democrats would prefer to talk until November — in fact, until the end of time — on Mr. Trump.” about. “
Yet Trump will see an advantage as well.
Once again he is dominating the national psyche, while his fervent base has a new conspiracy theory to feed, illuminating right-wing social media with weapons and threats of Civil War 2.0.
Richard Lowry, editor of the conservative magazine National Review, wrote, “Donald Trump has over $100 million in his political war chest. But he has an even more valuable one – an active FBI investigation against him.”
“It has put him front and center again. It has made it easier for him to portray himself as a threatened victim.”
Trump’s Choice, Biden’s Strategy
In the Republican primary, Trump’s political footprint will likely crush the strongest of rivals.
Republican political strategist John Thomas told Politico, “If Trump is what he wants at this point, I don’t think it’s his.” “It will be a coronation.”
And joining Trump would also inevitably trigger Biden’s decision to follow through – any ideas privately set aside for a young man before 2024.
“Trump is the key first mover in whether or not there is a recurrence,” said Lara Brown, director of the Graduate School of Political Management at George Washington University.
“I believe President Biden is waiting to see if Trump makes the announcement and if he does, I believe he will announce very quickly as well.”
Voters may not want either of them.
A July poll by NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ found that 60 percent said Biden shouldn’t run in 2024 and 57 percent said the same about Trump.
Biden backs himself against Trump. “In the next election, I would be very lucky if I had the same man running against me,” Biden said in March.
While it has been a difficult year for Biden, over the past few months he has transformed his presidency, achieving notable legislative and policy successes.
And although Biden remains deeply unpopular, with a nearly 40 percent approval rating, a better record in the White House, and widespread anger over the Supreme Court’s overturning of national abortion rights, leave advisers optimistic.
So when Republicans get lost in the Trump plays, Democrats will focus on kitchen table issues, an aide said.
“It’s about meeting the people where they live and the things that matter most in their lives,” the aide said on condition of anonymity. “There will be a lot of things that will be in the news, but we’re going to talk people into their lives.”
(Except for the title, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)