Tough times for the Union

When US President Joe Biden took the stage this week to deliver his first State of the Union address before both houses of Congress, it was a historic moment for several reasons. Not only has any of his successors delivered the address since 1945 during an ongoing ground war of similar magnitude to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but the optics of his speech captured another rare event. The two top Congress officials who stood behind Mr. Biden as he spoke, the speaker and deputy speaker of the House of Representatives, were both women for only the second time in the country’s history.

Obstacles, Ukraine too

Despite the epoch-making time that marked the event, the reality is that Mr Biden faces serious challenges on the foreign policy front and a steep climb to overcome domestic hurdles before He can claim credit for any policy inheritance which is for the improvement of his partner’s lot. Citizen.

On the foreign policy side, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s move to bluff the West and call off Ukraine’s military offensive has raised complex strategic questions for the Biden administration, which are difficult to explain to a US domestic audience. Why Mr Biden left Kyiv in limbo, without membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and with a virtual target on its back face to face Moscow’s guns, when many of Ukraine’s neighbors are NATO treaty allies? Why, despite so many clear indications that Russia will invade Ukraine if NATO expands its footprint eastwards across Europe, did Mr. Biden’s administration try to make it harder for Moscow to act in this regard, or at least To buy less more time did not do more. Persuading Mr. Putin to get involved diplomatically?

shadow of midterm elections

Now that Washington has imposed macroeconomic sanctions on the Russian political elite and Kremlin-affiliated institutions, which have shaken the Russian economy and brought the ruble to historic lows, how the Biden administration is dealing with the spill-over effects of the economic collapse. Will stop and stop them. Causing a widespread global recession? With the human toll rapidly increasing as the conflict intensifies and Russian troops march on Kyiv, America’s capabilities as a superpower nation globally will be closely examined in the coming days and weeks. He will almost certainly be attacked by Republicans as the midterm election cycle picks up – with former US President Donald Trump first up for debate by describing Mr Putin’s invasion of Ukraine as “genius” and “sensible”. has just been determined.

At home, a lot depends on the outcome of the midterm elections, particularly with regard to the prospects for the Democratic White House to make any meaningful policy reform in the two years that the Biden administration will have by the time the midterm ends. Democrats and Republicans are evenly split in the Senate with 50 seats, while Democrats hold on to a narrow margin of 221-212 in the House of Representatives, both of which could lose advantages to Democrats if the results of the 2022 midterm election are not favorable. them.

critical issues

The keystone issues Mr Biden needs to convince voters are if he is to prevent a damaging shift in the balance of power on Capitol Hill this November, halting jobs and economic recovery in a post-COVID-19 climate of uncertainty The pandemic will wreak more havoc in future waves, if any, inflation, and social security and education reforms to ease the financial burden on the budget of the middle class. Almost without exception, Mr. Biden will need Congressional support to do the heavy lifting in these policy areas, particularly where budgetary divisions require the signature of lawmakers. Certainly, it will matter in the field of foreign policy. A recent example demonstrating the importance of Congress here is the fact that negotiations on a $6.4 billion security and humanitarian aid package for Ukraine led to a stalemate in the Senate over the source of these funds – the military spending allocation already agreed upon. , or emergency provisions above and beyond that level. Similarly, on the domestic front, Mr Biden’s ubiquitous mega-bill in late 2021, demanding $1.85 trillion for Social Security and climate change, came to naught due to united opposition from Senate Republicans and some rebel Democrats, who lined up Voted.

Trump’s influence

At the heart of the Democratic conundrum is the fact that Mr Trump’s tenure exposed the forces that have shifted ground under Washington’s politics. Whatever the charges of criminality or wrongdoing by the 45th President of the United States, whether in a case of tax evasion or his role in the January 6, 2021 attack on Capitol Hill buildings, Mr. Trump has called for white America again. called for emphasis. Its perceived supremacy has firmly incorporated itself into wider discourse and heralded a new era where political correctness is abandoned, and facts sometimes matter less than opinion.

Indeed, it is clear that Mr. Biden is trying to forge a link between traditional mainstream democratic values ​​and the new paradigm when he spoke of the State of the Union “rebirth of pride” and “revitalization of American manufacturing”. , which, if it materializes, could help his administration “cut your costs, not your wages,” and ensure that America makes “more cars and semiconductors in America.” More infrastructure and innovation in the US. More goods are moving faster and cheaper in the US. More jobs where you can make a good living in America. Instead of relying on foreign supply chains, let’s build it in America”.

At the end of the day the old adage “It’s economy, stupid” continues to resonate deeply across the country as the tagline of the American Dream. The realization of this – the Biden administration appears to acknowledge – will require the adoption of strong self-interest as a guiding value for policymaking, even if it comes at the cost of the gradual erosion of the global rules-based order and the consensus of globalization. and a denial of old, constitutional values ​​such as equal protection of laws.

narayan@thehindu.co.in

• When US President Joe Biden took the stage this week to deliver his first State of the Union address before both houses of Congress, it was a historic moment for several reasons.

• On the foreign policy side, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s move to bluff the West and call off Ukraine’s military offensive has raised complex strategic questions for the Biden administration, which are difficult to explain to a US domestic audience.

• The keystone issues Mr Biden needs to convince voters are if he is to prevent a damaging shift in the balance of power on Capitol Hill this November, halting jobs and economic recovery in a post-COVID-19 climate of uncertainty Social security and education reform to reduce the financial burden on the middle class budget, and the pandemic, from causing further havoc in future waves.