Ukraine looks to war for ideas to defend Taiwan against China

The self-governing island, which China claims, was already considering ways to upgrade its security as tensions have risen in the region in recent years. But events in Ukraine, which some politicians have described as a wake-up call for Taiwan, are speeding up the process.

One possible change is the extension of Taiwan’s mandatory military service to four months for men, even though many young people dislike the Taiwanese military.

A spokesman for President Tsai Ing-wen said last week that the Defense Ministry was weighing whether to extend the requirement, with new surveys showing support for the idea among 70% or more Taiwanese adults. Taiwan’s defense minister told lawmakers last week that a task force was studying the possibility of a period of up to 12 months, with a decision to be made this year.

“If war breaks out in Taiwan, we currently do not have enough four months of military training,” Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng said.

Debate over other possible moves has dominated legislative meetings and televised talk shows in recent weeks, with many discussions revolving around the guerrilla-style warfare tactics and weapons used by Ukraine and small armies being used by strategists to replace large armies. To help avoid being overwhelmed by powers. ,

Taiwan’s military leaders have generally preferred to invest in big-ticket gear such as jet fighters, tanks and ships. But Washington-based analysts warn that those things could be quickly destroyed by a more powerful invading force.

One idea under consideration by lawmakers and defense experts is to freeze attack drones, after their deployment in Ukraine to Kyiv slowed Russia’s progress.

The legislature’s defense committee this month approved a proposal to propose more training on anti-aircraft warfare, possibly including portable weapons such as the Javelin antitank missile and Stinger anti-aircraft missile, used by Ukrainian troops Was.

“When we look inside urban warfare in Ukraine, the anti-tank and anti-aircraft equipment possessed by individual soldiers is playing a really big role,” said Wang Ting-yu, a legislator from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party. He has also pushed for an early delivery of the four MQ-9 Reaper drones that the US agreed to sell to Taiwan in 2020 but Taipei has yet to order.

A Taiwanese military official said he expects drones to be in service by 2025.

Some security experts say that Ukraine’s experience underscores the importance of weapons stockpiles as the country quickly burned through its mobile weapons inventory and relied on further supplies from the US and other countries brought to its land border. Had to stay Providing Taiwan with additional weapons in a conflict would be more challenging, mainly because it is an island.

“Resupplying to Taiwan is a very difficult task and may not be possible in the long run”, said Ivan Kanapathy, a former military adviser to the US government in Taiwan.

Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu has said that more US arms deals will be announced. Separately, the Army Research and Development Institute aims to more than double its annual production of missiles, including the long-range Hsing Sheng cruise missile and the supersonic Hsing Fang III missile, according to a February report by lawmakers. Submitted to and viewed by The Wall Street. Journal.

Meanwhile, production of Taiwan-made drones that self-destruct when hitting military targets is expected to begin this year, according to the report, which was compiled before the start of the Ukraine war.

There is no indication that war in the Taiwan Strait is imminent. But Beijing has vowed to eventually bring Taiwan under control by force if needed, and has increased military aircraft sorties in the region.

China’s Defense Ministry did not respond to a request for comment. At a recent news conference, a spokesman for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office blamed Taipei for the escalating tensions on Taipei, accusing Taiwan’s ruling party of “using and exploiting Ukraine’s position to its advantage”. accused of.

The moves under discussion in Taiwan are still far from the kind of major reform that some experts in the US and elsewhere say Taiwan’s military needs to upgrade after low morale and accidents, including two jet fighter crashes this year .

Critics of Taiwan’s military, including some US analysts, say it has failed to respond as China’s military has modernized and developed rapidly, and will now have a difficult time and, if necessary, its more powerful. The attack by the neighbor will have to be repelled.

“They must be scary enough in Beijing’s eyes,” said Ian Easton, senior director of Project 2049 Institute, a US-based non-profit research organization focusing on the Indo-Pacific region. Mr Easton said Taiwan needed to increase the size of its military, which has shrunk for decades.

Taiwan recently created an agency to improve the training of its reserve force, but analysts and some former Taiwanese military officials say more radical steps are necessary.

Lee Hsi-min, former chief of staff of Taiwan’s military, said Taiwan should develop a regional defense force that would provide another layer of civilian defence. Mr. Lee said he did not expect such an idea to be adopted.

Many people on the island, once a military dictatorship, are wary of a powerful army. If popular support proves to be a fad, it could jeopardize the ruling party’s political fortunes if it goes ahead with military expansion ahead of crucial mayoral elections this year.

The change in recruitment is likely to spark a heated debate. Taiwan required men to serve approximately two years more than two decades ago, but this reduced as its economy matured and many people focused on professional careers.

In interviews with local media and online comments, some residents have suggested that Taiwan should focus on improving existing training. Others have suggested that women should also be drafted.

Taiwan’s defense ministry said it was still considering factors such as enemy threats, operational needs and training capabilities before making a decision.

Nevertheless, it is clear that the Ukraine war has struck a nerve.

Self-help books about how to survive a war have popped up on bestseller lists. Hsiao Bi-Khim, the de facto ambassador of Taipei to the US, wrote in a recent Washington Post opinion piece that Ukraine’s resilience has inspired Taiwan.

“The desire to defend our homeland and democratic way of life is also stronger than ever,” wrote Ms. Xiao.

For the first time, an annual disaster-response exercise starting March 31 and coordinated by Taiwan’s military will include a wartime scenario in which buildings will be hit by missiles and engulfed in flames.

Reservoir Jackie Lin, 27, who recently completed two weeks of refresher training, said the Ukraine conflict has changed her mind about the prospect of war with China four years ago, a quiet time when she lost her mandated military. service was started.

“This is our country. We need to protect it ourselves,” said Mr. Lin, a corrections officer who took part in a revised and more intensive course including weapons skills, battlefield first aid and a 10-kilometer forced foot march. About 400 were from the reservoir.

“We cannot be like Afghanistan, which is under attack and we are not able to fight back,” he said, referring to the fall of Kabul at the hands of the Taliban last year.