Ukraine war worsens Japan’s island dispute with Russia

As it reversed the precedent of the US and Europe to follow in imposing harsh sanctions to punish Russia for invading Ukraine, Japan said it scrambled fighter jets to intercept a helicopter – which Russian was believed to have entered his airspace. This fueled further squabbles between Japan and Russia, which have been at odds since the end of World War II over the four small islands located between them, preventing them from formally ending hostilities. The outbreak of war in Europe has turned rising tensions into downright hostility, with Russia saying it will halt talks on a peace deal because of sanctions Tokyo has imposed on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

What is the dispute about? The Soviet Union, which declared war on Japan on 15 August 1945, a few days before Emperor Hirohito announced the surrender of his country, seized the islands off the northeast coast of Hokkaido, expelling all 17,000 Japanese residents. Gave and occupied the land since then. The islands are known as the Northern Territory in Japan and the Southern Kuril in Russia.

Japan’s official position is that the islands—home to rich fishing grounds—are an inherent part of their territory and are currently under illegal occupation. Russia insists that it owns these islands, which have been inhabited by its own citizens for generations.

Have they tried to negotiate? Yes many times. In 2018, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Japan’s then Prime Minister Shinzo Abe agreed that talks should be based on a 1956 joint declaration that refers to the transfer of two of the four islands to Japan after the conclusion of a peace treaty .

Abe, whose late father, former Foreign Minister Shintaro Abe, had also repeatedly attempted to end the dispute, expressed optimism over the deal, but Russia insisted that Tokyo accept Russian sovereignty over the islands first. does. What seemed to be a low prospect for settlement later became even more distant. In 2020 the Russian parliament supported a tough stance on any territorial concessions, and changes to the Russian constitution also made it illegal to cede any part of Russia. In late March, Russia said it would stop negotiating a peace treaty with Japan after Tokyo imposed unprecedented sanctions on Putin’s attack on Ukraine.

How did the dispute with Ukraine get complicated? A Japanese Foreign Ministry official, Hideki Uyama, compared Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to the annexation of the islands. According to Japan’s Asahi newspaper, Uyama told a parliamentary committee on February 28, “I understand that Russia’s occupation of the northern regions and Russian military aggression in Ukraine is now against international law.”

Russia’s embassy in Tokyo responded by tweeting that the islands were legally relocated “as part of punishment for Japan’s aggression and alliance with Nazi Germany.” The reported brief incursion came shortly after on 2 March from the Japanese island of Hokkaido. Japan’s Ministry of Defense linked it to naval exercises by Russia’s Pacific Fleet in the Sea of ​​Japan and the Sea of ​​Okhotsk, which it said were intended to show how Russia’s forces could work together in Europe and Asia. .

How do people feel? Few in Japan would be satisfied with the two islands, while Russian public opinion appears to be against granting any territory. Any deal to hand over the land presents a risk to Putin, who has long been imprisoned against the erosion of the Soviet Empire and annexed Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula in 2014. Last year, he said that Russia was setting up a tax-free zone to attract investment. island.

What can happen next? Russia’s ambassador to Tokyo has warned of retaliation. The fishing industry in Hokkaido could effectively lose access to areas of Russia’s Exclusive Economic Zone around the islands if the Russian side seizes more boats that it considers to be illegal fishing. Russia may also increase air infiltration, as it did after Japan’s relatively mild sanctions on Crimea in 2014.

US Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel tweeted US support for Japan’s claim soon after taking office this year. For the time being, the dream of the former islanders of Japan to return to their old homes has come true. James Brown, an associate professor at Temple University’s Tokyo campus, said: “The idea that, after invading a neighboring country to prevent entering a US-led coalition, Putin would transfer territory to an American ally, absolutely unimaginable.” Researches Japan-Russia relations.

Isabel Reynolds is a political reporter at Bloomberg

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