Gold Price Outlook: After four consecutive weeks of gains, gold’s rally halted and prices gave way to selling pressure, facing resistance near the psychological $1,800 an ounce mark. In the last week, gold prices on MCX fell by more than 2 per cent, while spot gold prices fell by more than 3 per cent. It was a major strength in the dollar index, which acted as a major headwind for the precious metal. The dollar index has retreated nearly 3 per cent since testing a low of 104.63 points, triggering this corrective wave in gold prices, pushing them to a three-week low. The greenback picked up steam as market participants focused on the minutes of the July Fed meeting, which indicated that policymakers are committed to raising interest rates until they are convinced that inflation has moderated significantly. .
Following expectations of the US Fed strengthening the dollar index, the focus has now shifted to the Jackson Hole symposium scheduled for August 25-27 next week which will provide further indications for gold prices. Here we list the top 5 triggers that affect my gold price In the near term:
1]Jackson Hole Symposium: Sugandha Sachdeva said, “At the annual conference, the much-anticipated Fed Chair’s speech will provide further guidance on how high US borrowing costs could be in the coming months and how long they will hold on in their fight against elevated price pressures ” , Vice President – Commodity & Currency Research at Religare Broking.
2]Dollar Index: “The focus will be on the trend of the dollar index as it will largely affect the gold prices for the week. The index has a significant hurdle at 108 points and it remains to be seen whether it manages to stay above the same. could.” Sugandha Sachdeva of Religare Broking.
3]US Q2 GDP Data: “The third estimate of US Q2 GDP data will be released next week and gold investors are advised to be cautious about the data release as it will give a greater view of the health of the US economy. If the US GDP estimates turn out to be disappointing. If so, it could make the interest in gold rising due to a profit-booking trigger in the US dollar,” said Anuj Gupta, vice-president – research, IIFL Securities.
4]US Initial Wholesale Inventory and Trade Balance: “These US numbers are very important post Jackson Hole symposium as weak trade balance data could put pressure on US dollar which could lead to higher gold prices,” said Anuj Gupta, IIFL Securities.
5]US Home Sales and Job Data: With the release of many other economic data, volatility in gold prices will increase further. Next week includes US and European manufacturing data, US services PMI, new home sales, core durable goods orders and core PCE price index.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given above are those of individual analysts or broking companies and not of Mint.
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