wWhen you will be seventy-one years old; when you have been paying income tax regularly for fifty years; When you remember Darjeeling before its great hotel burnt down; When you remember Highland Park in Gulmarg as a serene place; When you remember watching Jawaharlal Nehru, whom we knew as Panditji, speak in poor English; When you remember Soviet leaders Bulganin and Khrushchev driving down Marine Drive; When you remember that Guntakal was a meter gauge station; When you remember the eloquence of young Vajpayee even in those years when he knew he was going to lose; When you remember that Indira compared “Garibi Hatao” to “Indira Hatao”; When you remember where you were when John Kennedy was shot; When you remember all these things, you are old and wise (perhaps unwise?). In our country, at least, old people are entitled to “give wisdom”.
Actually, I want to mention a recent memory. I remember an elitist evening where re-actor LK Advani explained to a small audience that he had picked up the idea of ”India Shining” from a fashion advertisement. When I see all the G20 banners and lights on Marine Drive, when I see the relentless media coverage of yoga in New York, Ray Dalio and Elon Musk praising our country and our Prime Minister, I’m sorry to say That I remember “India Shining” has awakened the party passion in me. Think back to 2004, in my mind and in the minds of almost all my friends, Vajpayee’s return was guaranteed. Arguments, if any, details I remember former Union Cabinet Minister Pramod Mahajan on TV accepting defeat but also stating that he was as surprised as we were. And this from an expert!
Elon Musk and G20 diplomats don’t vote in our elections. Maybe now is the time to stop and take a deep breath about 2024. This is my humble message to the leaders of today’s government. I am on your side. But I am worried.
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2004 replay?
The similarity of the macro numbers is startling. Vajpayee had rising revenues, a handsome though modest current account surplus, rapidly growing reserves, low inflation and solid GDP growth. We now have growing revenues, a modest though current account deficit that is more than rapidly growing reserves, a moderate rate of inflation that is well below the rest of the world, and a growth rate of GDP. The growth rate is also good.
The US President also recognized Vajpayee as a statesman, a zealous and immoral Clinton rather than the loyal and upright Biden.
After Pokhran our Coventry trip came to an end. Our macro numbers were on a roll. Our global “prestige”, whatever that word means, was high. The condescension we felt for being “separate” on Ukraine is behind us. We are apparently the darlings of the global elite. I believe that good macro figures and foreign appreciation is the only cause for concern. He was not a vote-winner in 2004. They still can’t be.
But…but…but. The 2004 elections were in May, the hottest month in our country. The Election Commission has postponed the Andhra Pradesh elections. They were held during one of our worst summers ever. Chandrababu Naidu lost badly. In Tamil Nadu, the move from Karunanidhi to Jayalalithaa did not help. smiling Atal ji was out. Who would have thought this would happen? Between El Nino and an astrologically bad Guru-Chandala yoga, this year’s rains may let us down and next summer could be tough. Fortunately, India may be able to feed itself; But dry villages and towns lacking water can become albatross. There is no dearth of past enemies now. Sharad Pawar, despite his age, can be a new YSR and do in Maharashtra what YSR did in Andhra Pradesh. MK Stalin is by no means a finished force. He can repeat his father’s performance.
I think it is important to move away from the feel-good rhetoric of positive macro indicators and international acclaim. These in themselves are good things for the country. But there is not enough empirical evidence to show any correlation between these national achievements and electoral performance, let alone causation.
Had the Election Commission conducted the elections earlier or if the heat had not been so severe, Chandrababu could have performed better. A persistent story is that they were attributed to the weather and lack of water. No one expected the Indian summer of the moribund CPM. These are the kinds of things that happened in 2004. It can happen again. I’m too old to remember 1967. No one expected the DMK to get an absolute majority in the state of Madras, which they later renamed Tamil Nadu, and no one expected that K Kamaraj and SK Patil would lose. But these things happened. Voters everywhere are unpredictable and Indian voters are even more unpredictable.
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Silver Lining
A great ray of hope is the pathetic condition of the opposition. They can still make 2024 another losing year for themselves. But this does not mean that the ruling government can avoid the grassroots campaign. anti corruption and Beneficiary (beneficiaries of welfare schemes) were major pivots in 2004 and 2014 as these issues seem to be resonating with voters. In contrast, high GDP growth rates or certificates from abroad are unlikely to be vote-winning talismans.
The second question that needs to be asked is whether the new discovery of a shining, rising or rising India will not be a matter of over-optimism and distraction. One has to go back to recall unusual missions: Ramakrishna Hegde wandered from town to town, his voice becoming increasingly hoarse; or Akhilesh Yadav riding a bicycle in the countryside wearing a red cap; or YSR walking from village to village; Or Naveen Patnaik staying put in Bhubaneswar, regardless of outside attention. They all won. I don’t think the voters were swayed by the growth rate, fiscal stability or global acclaim. Indeed, Chandrababu’s international acclaim may be negative.
We are still eleven months away from the time of reckoning. The unsolicited “wisdom” of this old blurb with silly memories might be a bit relevant.
Jayateertha Rao is a retired businessman based in Mumbai. Thoughts are personal.
(Editing by Therese Sudeep)