various narratives

The Maldivian government’s decision to ban the ‘India Out’ protest shows that the campaign, which began as an online protest by critics of the Ibrahim Solih administration, has turned into a polarizing political issue in the Indian Ocean island nation, With whom India has deep ties. , The campaign, which remained a minor protest in the early years after former President Abdulla Yameen took power, came into vogue late last year. Mr Yameen, who served two years in prison after losing power in 2018, wanted a strong political narrative to return, especially in the run-up to its presidential election in 2023 in the country. Critics called the Solih administration a “puppet of New Delhi”. , accusing him of allowing an Indian military presence thereby compromising the sovereignty of the country – a charge that the government has repeatedly denied. Mr Yameen has organized several political rallies openly attacking the government’s relations with India. When Mr. Yameen was in power, he was largely seen as a friend of China. Tension was raised by his government’s ultimatum to India to withdraw two of its helicopters from the two atolls. But relations between the two countries improved significantly after Mr Solih’s Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) came to power in 2018.

President Solih adopted an ‘India first’ foreign policy. Over the past four years, India has emerged as the main security and economic partner of the Maldives, committing $1.4 billion towards its ‘socio-economic development needs’. In February 2021, it signed the Uthuru Thila Phalhu (UTH) port development agreement with Male to develop the National Defense Force Coast Guard port. After this deal, the Yameen camp intensified its attack on the government. India has historically played an important role in Maldives as a friendly large neighbour. But China’s rise in the Indian Ocean region has raised the strategic profile of this small, import-dependent island-nation of 550,000 people, where the two countries fought for influence. Now, while Mr. Yameen is trying to regain his lost support by fomenting Maldivian nationalism and anti-India sentiments, the MDP is trying to counter it with a more nationalist narrative. It argues that relations with India, the closest largest neighbor of the Maldives, are vital to the country’s security, including food security. While these two narratives will clash in the coming elections, India will find itself in a difficult position, being the epicenter of political squabbles. Victory is not guaranteed for the MDP, which faces anti-incumbency problems and differences between Mr. Solih and powerful former president Mohamed Nasheed. If it loses, India risks losing the influence it has built over the years. The challenge before India is to forge closer ties with all political factions of the Maldives, while helping the country meet its economic and security needs.