‘China’s actions towards India in 2020 and the evolving international order have clearly forced a re-evaluation of Indian interests in the SCO’. Photo Credit: AFP
In a media briefing on 4 July, India’s Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra emphatically stated that the fact that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit was held virtually “in no way indicates a reduction in those objectives, Or doesn’t signal what we’re trying to get at.” of the SCO summit”. However, he did not reveal any reason for not holding the summit physically or in hybrid mode. To emphasize India’s commitment to the SCO, Mr Kwatra discussed the political, economic and cultural initiatives taken by the country and the 134 meetings and events held during its presidency of the SCO. What Mr Kwatra overlooked was a valid point – it is precisely because India had put so much effort into the SCO that the summit should have been held in physical or mixed mode. This would have given it more prominence.
Mr. Kwatra’s failure to cite a single credible reason for holding the virtual summit indicates that India is moving away from the vision that led it to become a full member of the SCO in 2017. At that stage Prime Minister Narendra Modi still believed he could do it. Reach the modalities of talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping on contentious issues affecting India-China relations. Therefore, despite the origins of the SCO and China’s influence on it, he enthusiastically went ahead with India’s full membership.
China serves as the reason
China’s actions towards India in 2020 and the evolving international order have clearly forced a re-evaluation of Indian interests in the SCO. This is evident not only from the point of holding a virtual summit, but also from Mr. Modi’s combative articulation on issues of concern to India (terrorism and connectivity) on which he is at fundamental differences with China and Pakistan. On terrorism, Shri Modi said, “Some countries use cross-border terrorism as a weapon of their policies, give shelter to terrorists. SCO should not hesitate to criticize such countries. There should not be double standards on such serious matters.” While neither Pakistan nor China will change its stance on terrorism, the issue resonates in the Central Asian republics, which continue to be of deep concern to terrorist groups using Afghanistan.
However, on connectivity, which is a core issue for the SCO, India’s isolation in the organization is evident. Shri Modi reiterated India’s position that connectivity projects must respect national sovereignty. Their target was China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its flagship China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which violates Indian sovereignty. Importantly, however, Mr Xi announced in his address to the summit, that on the 10th anniversary of the BRI, “China will hold the 3rd Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation”. For him, the BRI is “a path to happiness that benefits the whole world”.
BRI and Eurasian Games
The negative consequences of the BRI have not dampened the enthusiasm of the SCO members towards it. Therefore, India needs to be mindful of the danger of China integrating Eurasia and excluding it from the region with the active support of Pakistan. This does not mean that India should support the BRI, which is an instrument of Chinese expansionism, but rather find ways to maintain closer ties with Eurasia. Certainly, promoting Buddhist heritage, however laudable the effort, will not help in attracting SCO members to India and arresting their growing ties with China. Also, the Chabahar project (Iran) has not progressed as it should have. India will have to invest far more resources and energy in developing connectivity through Iran, although it is not an easy task to deal with. Active air corridors with the Central Asian republics and a pragmatic policy towards Afghanistan (which does not mean diplomatic recognition of the Taliban) are also necessary to stay in the Eurasian game, however tenuous.
silence on the ukraine war
Expectedly, the SCO declaration was silent on the Ukraine war. Neither India, Pakistan or China mentioned it in their summit statements. Russian President Vladimir Putin mentioned Ukraine and reprimanded the West. It is also notable that he thanked the SCO countries for “supporting the Russian leadership in defending the constitutional order” in the wake of the “armed rebellion”. Mr. Xi, who has been a supporter of Mr. Putin throughout the Ukraine war, made no mention of Russia’s support in his summit statement.
The virtual summit ensured that Mr Modi would not have to meet any of the leaders in person, including Shehbaz Sharif of Pakistan. This could avoid the chaos of the SCO Foreign Ministers’ meeting in Goa in May 2023. However, the price India paid for Mr Putin’s approach to India in avoiding controversy and embarrassment was in India’s performance. Currently located in Eurasia and its western neighborhood.
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Many eyes will now be on the BRICS summit in South Africa in August where Mr. Xi and perhaps Mr. Putin will be present. Will Mr Modi go to South Africa or avoid any possibility of mudslinging ahead of his great moment in the diplomatic sun – the G-20 summit in Delhi in September?
Vivek Katju is a retired Indian Foreign Service officer