For Thai voters, the May 14 parliamentary election presented a stark choice between a royalist, military-backed government and a pro-democracy, reformist opposition. They strongly supported the latter, When preliminary results were announced, the progressive Move Forward party emerged as the largest bloc with 152 seats. The Phu Thai Party, another democratic outfit led by Paitongtaran Shinawatra, daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, came second with 141 seats. All pro-government parties fared poorly. Both Move Forward and Phu Thai have pledged to stand up to the military that seized power in a 2014 coup and resolve the country’s economic issues. The Move Forward, a political upsurge led by 42-year-old Pita Limjaroenrat, is now leading coalition talks and has staked a claim to form the next government. During the campaign, Mr. Pita was critical of the establishment and offered a fresh start to Thai voters. The party’s manifesto promised to stop military conscription, end the “cycle of coups”, tackle business monopolies, and abolish the military-drafted constitution. It also vowed to amend the controversial lese majeste law, which shields the monarchy from public criticism. The Move Forward’s promises helped the fledgling party connect easily with the public, who were increasingly angered by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha’s authoritarianism and the drying up of economic opportunities.
But an electoral victory does not mean that Move Forward has an easy road to government formation. The opposition coalition has a majority (309) in the 500-member elected house, but in Thailand’s 750-member bicameral parliament (250 members of the Senate are appointed by the military), Mr Pita would need the support of 376 legislators to form a government. His criticism of the military and promise to amend the royal defamation law made the generals wary of his elevation. If the Senate votes against the opposition coalition as a bloc, it will not be able to form a government. It remains to be seen what will happen between now and July 13, when the Election Commission officially confirms the results. In the 2019 election, the Future Forward party, the predecessor of Move Forward, emerged as the third largest party, surprising the generals. It was later disbanded and its leaders banned from politics. Mr Pita is facing cases for allegedly violating electoral laws. But any move to prevent the winners of the elections from forming a government would be disastrous for a country that stands on the brink. Thailand saw widespread pro-democracy protests in 2020, which were crushed by the regime. Some 14 million people voted to move forward and if the army violates their mandate, it will widen the rift in society. Instead, the generals should see the election as an opportunity to hand over power and allow the winners to form the next government.