The Arabian Gulf is once again poised to become a key player in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan
On 19 December, Pakistan hosted a special session of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) to address the crisis in Afghanistan. The Taliban, which captured Kabul in August after a 20-year-long war with the US, also participated. Saudi Arabia insisted on Pakistan’s call for the meeting. The humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan is at its peak as there are no basic facilities available for its population and there is a cold winter ahead. While Pakistan hosted the OIC, India hosted foreign ministers from Central Asian states, where Afghanistan also topped the agenda. All participating countries – Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan – also OIC members chose to prioritize discussions with New Delhi. There are other rifts going on within the OIC, particularly among the Gulf states, now spreading over the issue of Afghanistan and determining the influence of the Taliban-led country on the new regime.
Qatar’s growing dominance
The centrality of Saudi Arabia’s presence during the OIC session comes as Riyadh kept a certain distance on developments involving the US, the Taliban and the then Afghan government of President Ashraf Ghani. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Pakistan were the only three countries that officially recognized the previous Taliban government in 1996, until its fall in 2001. However, that was a different era, and 20 years is a long time in geopolitics. Fast forward to the 2010s, and it was the small but prosperous state of Qatar that became the mediating force on Afghanistan. Doha has hosted the official Taliban political office since 2013 to allow for talks with the US. In early 2010, Saudi funding found its way into Afghanistan, as the Salafist and Wahhabi ecosystems attempted to anchor themselves, However, many argue, unsuccessfully.
Qatar’s new role on Afghanistan gave it significant diplomatic and political visibility around the world. The first point of India’s official public diplomatic contact with the Taliban occurred in Doha when Ambassador Deepak Mittal met Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai, the head of the Taliban’s political office, in August 2021. While it was not the only geopolitical flashpoint, Doha was becoming deeply involved. In West Asia, Qatar’s growing clout and ambition were equally causing unease in traditional power centers in Abu Dhabi and Riyadh, particularly on issues such as the Qatari leadership’s support for political Islam and organizations such as the Muslim Brotherhood.
radical changes
In 2017, these crackdowns broke levies within the Gulf Cooperation Council, as the UAE and Saudi Arabia launched an economic blockade against Doha, hoping to rule over the kingdom and allow it to adapt to its geopolitical designs. was preventing further advances that were challenging long-held power. remain so. This four-year deadlock ended in 2021.
However, these four years brought about fundamental changes within the larger Arabian Gulf formation. Qatar shrugged off the risk and moved on to Turkey and Iran. In 2017, Turkey moved troops to Qatar to ensure that the al-Thani family’s monarchy was protected before the state, to avoid any attempts against it. Today, both Qatar and Turkey are in a bid to ground Afghanistan’s airports under Taliban rule.
For the Gulf in particular, Qatar’s punching-up-wet-weight approach to geopolitics was also making it more powerful and influential with Washington DC, to reduce it, during a recent OIC special session. The Saudis played a central role. He repaired his broken ties with Pakistan, where Riyadh had repeatedly put Prime Minister Imran Khan’s government on the backburner. Even during this period, Doha played its cards, and in 2019, at the height of Islamabad-Riyadh tensions, offered a $3 billion bailout to financially ailing Pakistan. However, Pakistan’s suspected ‘kingmaker’ position in Afghanistan and influence over the Taliban has now hardened Rawalpindi’s agency on the issue. This is highlighted by the UAE’s recent decision to allow former Afghan government officials to seek asylum in the country, but reportedly curb their participation in political activities, including on social media.
The Arabian Gulf is once again poised to become an important player in Afghanistan under the shadow of the Taliban. In 2015, Narendra Modi became the first Indian Prime Minister to visit the United Arab Emirates in 34 years. His first overseas visit is expected to be in Abu Dhabi in January 2022. Over the past decade, India has recognized the importance of central powers in the Arabian Gulf to the rapidly evolving global order, from the fight against terrorism to new diplomatic challenges like Afghanistan. ,
Kabir Taneja is a Fellow, Strategic Studies Program, Observer Research Foundation
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