We should consider the political implications of AI chatbot disruption

According to economists at Goldman Sachs, about 300 million jobs are likely to be automated. A research paper published by Open AI, the startup that came up with ChatGPT, states that “19% of workers may see at least 50% of their work affected”.

Technologies like ChatGPT have put the jobs of accountants, financial analysts, writers, journalists, public relations specialists, blockchain engineers, interpreters, etc. at risk the most. Also, jobs like cooks, dishwashers, carpenters, masons, athletes, etc. have the lowest risk.

These forecasts do not take into account the political impact this new technology is likely to have. In fact, this is not the first time that fear of job loss has arisen due to a new technology. In the UK, in the early 1800s, a new type of power-loom threatened to destroy traditional weaving, leading weavers, who were skilled craftsmen, to resist.

Technology destroys existing jobs, but it also creates new ones. Let’s consider the horse which was once very important for transportation. Its importance was destroyed by the invention of the automobile and the railways. This allowed riders to ride horses between cities, horse-drawn carriages within cities, farms that produced these horses, workshops that produced carriages, and even city streets. Destroyed the jobs of individuals cleaning up discarded horse manure.

Nevertheless, new jobs were created in the factories that produced railway carriages and automobiles and for the drivers and loco-drivers that hauled the new automobiles and trains. Also, the entire process of building railway tracks and national highways created a large number of jobs.

Furthermore, a new technology leads to the creation of other new technologies. As Martin Wolf writes in The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism: “Electricity brought about refrigeration, the telephone, the skyscraper, air-conditioning and early computers.” And this dynamic also creates more jobs.

But there’s a flip side that isn’t often talked about: The people whose jobs are destroyed by new technology don’t always have the skills to take on the new jobs that technology creates. As Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo write in Good Economics for Hard Times: “Real blue-collar wages in Britain almost halved between 1755 and 1802 … They would only regain their 1755 levels sixty-five years later, in 1820 . The period of rapid technological progress in the United Kingdom was also an era of profound deprivation and very difficult living conditions.” Clearly, while many benefit from the new technology, many do not.

Now, how is all this relevant in the coming era of ChatGPT and other similar technologies? First, until now, new technologies have largely competed with human physical capabilities. Automobiles, railways and airplanes made travel easier and faster than riding a horse, or a human being walking for that matter. Tap water saved women the trouble of going out of their homes to collect supplies.

But this time the situation is different. The impact of the proliferation of technologies such as ChatGPT is likely to be more on white-collar workers than manual ones. In fact, if one looks at the jobs at risk, most of such jobs are white collar jobs. These are the workers who generally live and work in cities. Also, in the era of social media, such people are more vocal than others for their rights. And it is likely to have political ramifications.

A good comparison here is that manufacturing jobs have declined in much of the Western world over the past few decades. As Wolf writes: “The major reason for the decline in industry’s share of employment has been rising productivity,” meaning that better technology can now produce more economic output than in the past, requiring fewer men in manufacturing. is required. Of course, in addition to better technology, a lot of manufacturing has moved to China and elsewhere.

In the process, the economies of many of America’s smaller cities and towns, which revolved around manufacturing, were destroyed. Due to this, many people working in these factories were destroyed financially as well as their own conscience was also destroyed. Indeed, after they lost their jobs, they watched as Wall Street’s fat cats were bailed out by various governments following the financial crisis of 2007-08. This anger at feeling alienated eventually led to the rise of leaders like Donald Trump, who enjoyed much support in small-town and rural America.

The big takeaway here is that when the first wave of technology began destroying jobs in much of the Western world in the 18th and 19th centuries, democracy was not very strong, with only a limited number of men who owned some property, He had the right. To vote.

It is not so now. Any new technology that leads to large-scale job destruction is bound to cause protests and is likely to have electoral repercussions. In such a situation, it is certain to take a political form. Politicians can easily slow down the development and spread of this new technology. And that’s something to think about.

Vivek Kaul is the author of ‘Bad Money’.