Weak in victory: on Boris Johnson winning the no-confidence vote

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson managed to avoid Monday’s no-confidence vote against him within the Conservative Party, but the fact that 41% of the party’s MPs rebelled against his leadership is a major fall for a prime minister who, just three years earlier, since Margaret Thatcher’s 1987 victory. Led the Conservatives to their biggest ever victory. When the Johnson-led Tories, which won a majority of 80 seats in parliament, also toppled Labor’s “red wall” in the Midlands and industrial north, many expected an easy full term for the hardline Brexiteer. But Mr Johnson’s prospects changed after reports he held social gatherings on Downing Street while the rest of the country was in lockdown imposed by his government. The result is a relief for Mr Johnson. Of the 359 Conservative MPs, 211 supported him (59%). As per party rules, rebels cannot challenge his leadership for a year. But a larger-than-expected rebellion has already dealt a blow to his leadership. Her predecessor, Theresa May, escaped a no-confidence vote within the party in 2018 with 63% support among Tory MPs, but she did not stay in office for more than six months. In 1990, Thatcher won a vote of confidence, but left shortly thereafter. History holds serious lessons for Mr Johnson’s future.

While the originators of the rebellion were Mr Johnson’s lockdown parties, his government is facing bigger problems. Inflation has already hit a 40-year high and many economists are predicting a recession. The celebration of Britain’s exit from the European Union, which Mr Johnson personally endorsed, may have added to the country’s economic crisis. Brexit complicated Britain’s trade with its largest trading partner, the European Union, and shut down its primary source of cheap labour. Mr Johnson tried to defuse some domestic pressure by taking a firm position against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Britain was at the forefront of the Western bid to punish Russia with crippling economic sanctions, and supplied advanced weapons to Ukrainian forces. However, this did not lead to the desired result. Russia’s aggression and subsequent sanctions made the crisis living across the West even worse. According to pollsters, the Labor Party is now ahead of the Conservatives in nationwide opinion polls. The next big test for Mr Johnson will be the by-elections for Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton constituencies on 23 June. If the Conservatives lose him, as opinion polls predict, it will put further pressure on the prime minister. Growing rebellion within the party, economic woes and growing unpopularity among voters all present Mr Johnson with the most difficult time in his career.