For the BJP, there is a simple calculation behind the sudden change of chief ministers of three electoral states – ignore the criticisms of opponents, make sure to remove chief ministers who may be a liability during elections and, instead, with a change of guard. win the election. The removal of Vijay Rupani of Gujarat has drawn rebuke from both the TMC and the Congress, but the BJP could not care less.
This brings us to the issue of an almost identical situation in some Congress ruled states which are facing internal rebellion; Punjab is the most vivid example of this. Over 32 MLAs visited Delhi to convey to the Congress leadership that contesting the elections under the leadership of Captain Amarinder Singh would mean certain losses. Top Congress leaders were in turmoil and could only come out with the appointment of Captain’s arch rival Navjot Singh Sidhu as the state president. But this has only increased the split in the state Congress and now both the parties are involved in the game of dominating each other.
Two other states where the Congress is in power – Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh – are facing the same problem and are dominating each other. For now, the Gandhi family has managed to cover up the Baghel vs TS Singh Deo fight, but it is clear that both are in no mood to accept the space. Two warring leaders are under surveillance, but it is neither easy nor possible to replace Baghel, an OBC leader, just the head of the UP, Punjab and Uttarakhand elections.
It is a fact that Rahul Gandhi acknowledged that he had promised a rotation system and felt that it should be respected. But Sonia Gandhi and her advisors understood the political repercussions and the decision was withheld. But for how long? In Rajasthan too, the Gehlot vs Pilot saga is yet to end with the long-promised and awaited cabinet reshuffle and an acknowledgment that replacing Gehlot, who enjoys the support of a majority of MLAs, may not be easy.
All these states will eventually have elections with a confused state leadership. Changing the guard will require a lot of courage. But more than that, it will require a strong central leadership. The underlying fact of change of chief ministers by the BJP in Karnataka, Uttarakhand and Gujarat is the strong central leadership. In all these states, change is swift, sudden and unfollowed by any opposition. What the Center said was the last word.
But with the Congress, while it may claim that it is a more democratic system and therefore will not breathe on electively elected leaders in the states, the reality is that the central leadership is not focused, weak and tends to flex its muscles. is unable to. The case of Chhattisgarh, where Rahul Gandhi could not keep his word, is a living example of this.
Sometimes, the central leadership needs to show that they are the masters and have the power to hold the herd together. But it is the loss-battered, faltering decisions that have weakened the Gandhi family.
The past haunts again. When there were several allegations that Tarun Gogoi was treating his party’s opponents ruthlessly and did not allow the parallel power center to develop, the Gandhi family refused to heed the complaints.
The story of Himanta Biswa Sarma cannot be forgotten in a hurry. Sarma, in private, would often say that while he did not want to replace Gogoi as the CM of Assam, he wanted him to be given some importance and made him the PCC chief. But to use Sarma’s words: “He preferred to pay attention to his pet Pidi more than me”. the rest is history. Today, Sarma is the Chief Minister of Assam and the Congress may soon be relaxed in the state in future, as TMC is clearly eyeing it. If only, as some say, Rahul Gandhi had heard Sarma, saw the writing on the wall and mustered up the courage to replace a CM who was becoming unpopular.
Turning back to history after YSR’s death, Congress changed chief ministers, but they were experiments in disaster. From K Rosaiah to Kiran Reddy, no CM could match YSR’s iron grip. Today YSR’s son is the CM of Andhra Pradesh but a bitter enemy of Congress. In fact, just recently when several MLAs gave feedback to Rahul Gandhi that Narayanasamy was unpopular and that he should be replaced if the Congress is to win the election, no decision was taken. once again. And Congress lost the election.
So while the opposition’s criticism continues, in the end, the litmus test for any political party is its ability to win elections. If BJP succeeds in grabbing power in the three states where there has been a change of chief ministers, it will prove to be true. Once again, it will show that Congress is taking a nap by not seeing the writing on the wall at the right time and the Gandhi family cannot be accused of prioritizing victory.
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