We’ll need binding promises for climate action to work

Climate chaos broke out in 2022. Hurricane Ian in Florida, record-temperature heatwaves in Europe, unprecedented flooding in China and Pakistan, widespread flooding in Central and West Africa, and a year-long drought in China are just a few of the main ones. Disasters The climate disasters so far include 14 severe weather events, six floods, five droughts, three tropical cyclones and one hurricane. A report by the Center for Science and Environment said that India saw the effects of extreme weather on 88% of the 273 days of this year by the end of September.

The cost of life and property is increasing. At least 16,000 people have died in European heatwaves and more than 2,000 have now died in Pakistan’s floods. It is difficult to estimate the economic cost so quickly, but it is expected to exceed $500 billion when the final bills for Hurricane Ian are counted this year. Insurance costs, already skyrocketing due to high inflation, the pandemic and the burden of the Ukraine conflict, are set to rise even further with record reinsurance claims submitted. With reinsurance companies coming under such pressure, the structure of the reinsurance industry may require governments to act as ‘insurers of last resort’.

Since the UN Conference of the Parties (COP-26) last year, global warming is expected to increase to just 1.5 °C from pre-industrial times and has faded. The EG-2022 report highlights four key points: 1) commitments since CoP-26 have only gone beyond an additional 0.5 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2e); 2) Countries have gone out of their way to achieve three GtCO2e unconditional national defined contributions (NDCs) and six GtCO2e conditional NDCs (ie they are falling short of already insufficient targets) by the end of the decade; 3) the emissions gap in 2030 is 15 GtCO2e for the 2 °C route and 23 GtCO2e for the 1.5 °C route; 4) Global warming is projected to be 2.8°C by the end of this century as a result of existing policies without any additional action.

Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions declined in 2020 as a result of pandemic responses, but have since risen again from 2021 to 2019 levels. GHG emissions are expected to reach a new record of over 53 GtCO2e in 2022. GHG emissions have continued to increase over the past 10 years, but the growth rate has slowed to about 1.1% per year. GHG emissions are highly uneven across geographies and households. The US and Russia are the highest per capita emitters of GHG, with China ranked third and India at eighth. For a 66% chance of a 2°C or less increase by the end of the century, the world would need to reduce GHG emissions to about 40 GtCO2e by 2030 and 20 GtCO2e by 2050. This goal seems only remotely achievable, especially since many countries have used inflation, pandemics and war in Ukraine as excuses not only to delay climate action but to reverse many years of progress.

It is against this background that COP-27 is being held this week in Sharm-el-Sheikh, Egypt. While much will be said, the COP-27, like its predecessor, is likely to disappoint. The failure of subsequent COP meetings after the 2015 Paris Agreement (on COP-21) is due to a birth defect in that original agreement. The pledge, enshrined in the NDC, does not hold governments to binding goals. Even the $100 billion climate finance promise made by the Global North to developing countries in Copenhagen (in COP-15) annually has not been met.

Since 2015, we have had progressively more intense extreme weather events. These events, along with a once-in-a-century pandemic, unprecedented global inflation in 40 years, and a war in continental Europe, have not forced a wake-up call. A crisis-led opportunity was pointed to a green future. Instead, it seems to have led to an economic regression.

Look for the term ‘climate adaptation’ to be a big part of COP-27’s legacy. To mix metaphors, this is a cop-out. It rationalizes the failures of climate commitment, climate action and climate justice. Instead, it will draw attention to how the world is adapting to the damage that has already happened and that will continue to be caused by omissions and commission errors. While some of this is undoubtedly necessary, it will likely have the effect of easing pressure on further action. Every big country is guilty in this spectacle, but America, EU and China should be the biggest part of being guilty.

It is clear that COP-27 is lost even before it is launched. Therefore, COP-28 in the UAE should set a very ambitious agenda. It would have to codify the NDC pledges into binding commitments. In a world where there is little trust between the global north and south, between the EU and Russia, and between the US and China, the prospects do not look great.

But try, we should. Our collective future hangs in the balance. Every fraction of a degree counts for peak warming. Decarbonization, carbon sequestration and outright carbon removal techniques are expected to make rapid progress. Despite this, drastic reduction in GHG emissions is still needed. The sooner we can do that, the more promising the future will be.

PS: “The forests are lovely, deep and deep. But I have promised to keep it. And I have miles to go before I sleep…” wrote the poet Robert Frost.

Narayana Ramachandran is the chairman of Include Labs. Read Narayan’s Mint column at www.livemint.com/avisiblehand