What BJP’s victory in three Hindi heartlands mean for 2024 Lok Sabha polls

Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) swept three Hindi Heartlands by unseating the opposition in two of them in the four state assembly election results announced on Sunday. The BJP retained power in Madhya Pradesh and wrested control of the state legislatures from its rival Congress, in both Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. The 2023 Assembly election results have clearly strengthened Prime Minister Modi’s bid for a third term in office. The outcome reflects PM Modi’s popularity in the populous Hindi-speaking states predominantly in the north remains intact.

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As the BJP leadership savoured hattrick just months after losing its lone southern citadel Karnataka to the Congress, PM Modi on Sunday said some people are already saying that the victory in the three states assembly elections is a guarantee of his third term in the Centre.

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Modi turned on the heat on the Congress over its poll guarantees by projecting himself as a leader who has delivered on the promises made by him to help the common man meet his aspirations. The BJP politicians amplified their pitch around Narendra Modi during the Assembly polls as their manifestoes featured his guarantees. Besides, PM Modi also launched a high-voltage campaign in the poll-bound states, except for Mizoram, to seek the popular support of the common man. PM Modi addressed 14 rallies each in Rajasthan and MP and five in Chhattisgarh after the polls were announced. He held two massive roadshows in Rajasthan and one in MP and his entries in many of the rally venues were marked by a drive through cheering supporters.

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With BJP’s victory in three crucial states on the back of PM Modi’s popularity and Hindutva sentiments, the path appears to be clearer for the saffron party to rule for another term. Looking at the Lok Sabha seats proportion in the recently held election in the five states, Madhya Pradesh (29), Rajasthan (25), and Chhatisgarh (11) comprise 65 seats in the lower house. Before the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, BJP has full governance in 12 states now-Uttarakhand, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Goa, Assam, Tripura, Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh, MP, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh, respectively.

BJP sweeps three of four state assembly elections

On the other hand, the rival Congress’ popularity is diminishing in the Hindi heartlands. In north India, Congress is in power in just Himachal Pradesh while it is governing Karnataka and now Telangana in the south. The loss for the Congress in yesterday’s poll appeared to weaken its position in the INDIA bloc where party equations could change, as other opposition parties may no longer consider it as the fulcrum of the opposition alliance. Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge said the party will overcome temporary setbacks and prepare fully for the Lok Sabha polls along with its partners in the INDIA alliance.

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Kharge has dialed the leaders of the INDIA block to meet next week. The fight is now well and truly on for 2024, but it seems the Congress will need to punch far above its weight to have any hope of displacing the BJP.

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Updated: 04 Dec 2023, 09:28 AM IST